The large cardamom market, after experiencing a sharp rally in recent weeks, has entered a phase of consolidation. Despite continued favorable weather across major producing regions in Nepal and India, the market is witnessing signs of weakness as both domestic and export demand lose momentum. The rally that drove prices to highs near USD 17.55 per kg has lost steam, with grower-level quotes now easing to the USD 15.00–15.50 per kg range. Several factors have contributed to this cooling trend: subdued export interest, cautious procurement by domestic buyers, and anticipations of increasing arrivals due to improved crop conditions.
With supply remaining steady and buyers adopting a wait-and-watch approach, industry participants are recalibrating their strategies, focusing on inventory management rather than aggressive purchasing. Unless a major uptick in export demand or domestic festival-season buying emerges, the market appears set for range-bound trade in the short term. The stage is now set for a phase where steady arrivals and moderate buying interest define market behavior—a period where upside looks capped and downside is supported by the underlying cost structure and quality supplies.
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.06 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.30 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.27 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot
| Product | Grade | Origin | Organic | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | IN | Yes | New Delhi | 17.96 | 18.07 | -0.11 | 2025-09-19 | Bearish |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm | IN | Yes | New Delhi | 16.20 | 16.30 | -0.10 | 2025-09-19 | Bearish |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 24.17 | 24.31 | -0.14 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 21.95 | 22.09 | -0.14 | 2025-09-19 | Bearish |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 23.37 | 23.51 | -0.14 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | IN | No | New Delhi | 21.01 | 21.14 | -0.13 | 2025-09-19 | Bearish |
| Cardamom powder | – | IN | Yes | New Delhi | 24.70 | 24.85 | -0.15 | 2025-09-19 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Trends
- Supply: Weather in Nepal and Indian cardamom belts continues to be favorable, supporting healthy crop development and assuring strong arrivals in the coming weeks.
- Demand: Export demand remains subdued with limited new orders. Domestic buyers remain on the sidelines, anticipating further price drops before stepping in.
- Sentiment: Inventory management and caution are the dominant themes, with most market players in wait-and-watch mode.
📊 Fundamentals & External Drivers
- Weather: Forecasts indicate steady and moderate rainfall across key growing regions in Nepal, Sikkim, and North-East India for the next 7 days, boding well for crop prospects and safeguarding yields.
- Inventory: Carryover stocks among traders appear adequate, reducing procurement urgency.
- Speculative Positioning: Lack of speculative interest as price momentum abates and the market moves into a consolidation phase.
- Major Event Watch: No significant policy or trade disruptions expected in the short term; bear watch on local festival demand dynamics.
☁️ Weather Outlook (Key Regions)
- Nepal & Sikkim: Continued favorable and timely rainfall; risk of adverse weather remains low, underpinning a good harvest season.
- North-East India (Assam, Meghalaya): Cloud cover and some rainfall predicted; no significant weather threats in the near term.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- Leading Exporters: Nepal, India (Sikkim and North-East), Guatemala (small share for large cardamom).
- Major Importers: Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia), Bangladesh, Pakistan, EU.
- Stock Position: Global stocks remain comfortable with recent arrivals replenishing supply pipelines.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price action expected to remain range-bound (EUR 15.00–18.00/kg for organic, higher for select premium grades).
- Upside capped by subdued export orders and near-term supply stability.
- Weakness may be limited unless a major supply shock arises; watch festival demand triggers.
- Buyers may consider opportunistic spot buying on further dips or for select premium grades.
- Sellers advised to manage inventory proactively and avoid stockpiling in expectation of further rallies.
⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB New Delhi)
| Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Day 1 Forecast | Day 2 Forecast | Day 3 Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole (organic, 7.5-8 mm) | 17.96 | 17.80 | 17.70 | 17.70 | Weak/Bearish |
| Cardamom whole (organic, 6.0-6.5 mm) | 16.20 | 16.10 | 16.00 | 16.00 | Weak/Bearish |
| Cardamom whole (premium, 8 mm) | 24.17 | 24.10 | 24.00 | 24.00 | Stable |
