Favorable weather in Kerala, the heartland of Indian cardamom, has led to healthy growth of the small cardamom crop and consistent arrivals in key auction centers. However, despite positive agronomic conditions, prices continue to face downward pressure as supply outpaces tepid export and domestic demand. Recent auctions at Puttady and Vandanmedu highlight a clear trend: steady or growing arrivals are matched with declining average prices, underscoring a market caught in a bearish cycle.
Analysts point to elevated stock levels, only moderate domestic buying, and lukewarm export interest as reasons for the current price malaise. Futures trading on NCDEX reflects similar caution, with contracts softening across the board amid ample traded volume. Though Kerala’s beneficial weather—a mix of clear days and timely rainfall—bodes well for continued production, this is unlikely to spark upward momentum in prices without a demand-side surprise. With supply-side conditions robust and market sentiment cooling, stakeholders in the cardamom sector should brace for subdued prices in the near term.
📈 Prices
| Exchange/Market | Product/Type | Latest Price | Previous Price | Weekly Change | Currency | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puttady Auction | Average | $15.25 | $17.85 | -$2.60 | USD/kg | Bearish |
| Vandanmedu Auction | Average | $14.95 | $16.60 | -$1.65 | USD/kg | Bearish |
| NCDEX (Sep) | Futures | $24.95 | $25.40 | -$0.45 | USD/kg | Bearish |
| NCDEX (Oct) | Futures | $24.95 | $25.25 | -$0.30 | USD/kg | Bearish |
| NCDEX (Nov) | Futures | $24.50 | $24.90 | -$0.40 | USD/kg | Bearish |
| New Delhi FOB | Cardamom whole, organic, 7.5-8 mm | €18.06 | €17.96 | +€0.10 | EUR/kg | Stable |
| New Delhi FOB | Cardamom whole, organic, 6.0-6.5 mm | €16.30 | €16.20 | +€0.10 | EUR/kg | Stable |
| New Delhi FOB | Cardamom whole, non-organic, 8 mm | €24.27 | €24.17 | +€0.10 | EUR/kg | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: Kerala’s ideal growing conditions (clear skies, nightly rain) have encouraged steady to high arrivals. Bulk arrivals in auctions continue at 20–25 tonnes, upholding downward price pressure.
- Demand: Both export and domestic demand remain sluggish—export orders are limited, and local market offtake is insufficient to absorb ongoing supply.
- Stocks: Elevated residual stocks remain an overhang, keeping traders cautious regarding any price recovery.
📊 Fundamentals
- Recent Auctions: Puttady arrivals: 9.95 tonnes (avg price $15.25/kg); Vandanmedu arrivals: 20.70 tonnes (avg $14.95/kg).
- NCDEX Futures: September–November contracts trended lower; total volume 354.6 tonnes reflects active but bearish participation.
- Market sentiment: Weakening, with scant prospect of rebound in the near term given the fundamentals.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Kerala (Key Growing Area): Short-term forecast remains favorable with continued pattern of clear days and intermittent night rainfall.
- Yield Impact: Good sunlight and rain enhance plant vigor, but previous heavy rains mean occasional localized crop loss.
- Market effect: Strong crop potential and further arrivals expected to maintain pressure on prices.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
- India: Continues as leading producer; arrivals robust, but dragging exports limit drawdown of stocks.
- Other Exporters: Guatemala’s crop stable, supply steady; Middle East buyers, key demand source, are largely on the sidelines.
- Importers: Middle East, EU demand defensively positioned, seeking lower prices.
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain a cautious approach: Further price weakness likely as stocks remain high and arrivals steady.
- Spot market buyers may find selective buying opportunities if prices soften further.
- Exporters should focus on active clients and value-added offers to compensate for demand shortfall.
- No bullish triggers seen unless there is unexpected disruption in supply or a surge in export activity.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Currency | Expected Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puttady Auction | $15.25 | $15.00–$15.40 | USD/kg | Bearish/Stable |
| Vandanmedu Auction | $14.95 | $14.80–$15.20 | USD/kg | Bearish/Stable |
| NCDEX (Front Month) | $24.95 | $24.60–$25.10 | USD/kg | Bearish/Stable |
| New Delhi FOB (cardamom whole, 7.5-8mm, organic) | €18.06 | €17.90–€18.20 | EUR/kg | Stable |
