Fennel Seeds Market 2026: Supply Tightens Despite Improved Yields

The global fennel seed market faces subtle but significant shifts going into 2026, with India—the sector’s crucial hub—projected to see a 4% year-on-year production decline. Despite farmers achieving 3% higher yields, a pronounced 7% drop in sown area has pulled total output lower. Gujarat, India’s leading fennel-producing state, experienced a dramatic 16% fall in production, driven overwhelmingly by shrunk acreage rather than a change in productivity.

In contrast, Rajasthan and other states such as Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh delivered increased output, with improved yields particularly notable outside Gujarat. This recalibration in supply dynamics is likely to support firm pricing—especially if export demand remains resilient throughout the year—suggesting limited prospects for price relief for end-users. Overall, with tighter supply and only partially offsetting yield gains, the global fennel market in 2026 is bracing for continued firmness, and careful monitoring remains essential for both buyers and sellers.

📈 Fennel Market Prices

Product	Type/Purity	Organic	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Location	Date
Fennel	Whole	Yes	2.40	2.43	-0.03	New Delhi, IN	2026-02-28
Fennel seeds	Grade-A/99%	No	1.14	1.12	+0.02	New Delhi, IN	2026-02-28
Fennel seeds	Grade-A/98%	No	0.89	0.87	+0.02	New Delhi, IN	2026-02-28

Market sentiment: Firm
Drivers: Tighter supply, uncertain export demand

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Production Down 4%: India’s output drops from 102.8K to 98.9K tonnes (2025-2026)
• Area Sown: National acreage down 7%, most acutely in Gujarat (-16%)
• Yields Improve: National average yield rises 3%
• Regional Shifts: Gujarat down 16%, Rajasthan up 5%, MP & UP up 25%
• Bags Produced: Down by ~70,780 (55kg each) versus last year
• Export Demand: If steady, prices remain strong due to supply squeeze

📊 Key Fundamentals

State/Region	Area (1000 ha)	2025	2026	Yield (kg/ha)	2025	2026	Production (1000 t)	2025	2026
Gujarat	45.28	38.09	1,136	1,139	51.44	43.39
Rajasthan	38.22	38.77	1,132	1,171	43.27	45.40
Other States (MP, UP)	–	–	–	–	8.05	10.08

• Nationwide Production: 2026: 98.87K tonnes; 2025: 102.76K tonnes (-4%)
• MP & UP: Area +5%, Yield +20%, Production +25%

⛅ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Yield improvements (notably in Rajasthan, MP, UP) suggest favorable recent weather
• Stable yields in Gujarat indicate no major weather disruptions, but reduced sowing reflects strategic or policy decisions or local agronomic issues
• Going forward, monitoring monsoon progress and potential late-season heatwaves will be critical for the next crop cycle

🌏 Global Production, Stocks & Trade

• India: Dominant global supplier; production cut in Gujarat tightening supply
• Export Consideration: If overseas demand remains consistent, exportable surplus will be reduced, supporting higher prices globally
• Other Regions: No major changes reported; India’s internal state shifts still drive global supply sentiment

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers/Sellers: Leverage firm market tone; consider gradual selling to capture possible further gains if export demand strengthens
• Exporters: Monitor export order flows closely; risk of price spikes if global buyers turn more active
• Importers/Buyers: Secure forward contracts; inventory replenishment advised due to limited price relief prospects
• Speculators: Upside potential due to tighter supply, but higher output in Rajasthan and MP, UP warrant caution

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB New Delhi)

Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Market Trend
Fennel (whole, organic)	2.40	2.38 – 2.42	Stable/Firm
Fennel seeds Grade-A (99%)	1.14	1.13 – 1.17	Stable/Firm
Fennel seeds Grade-A (98%)	0.89	0.88 – 0.91	Stable/Firm