Almond Market Faces Tightening Inventories and Delayed Harvest as Demand Stays Strong

Australian almond growers are navigating a complex market landscape as the 2025–26 marketing season draws to a close. Sharp declines in January 2026 almond sales, down 43% year-on-year, have grabbed headlines—an outcome primarily attributed to tightening inventory levels rather than weakening market fundamentals. Despite this drop, the overall performance for the season remains robust: total sales are just 11% below last year’s record, marking the second-highest season on record.

Strong production yields have underpinned these results, exceeding initial expectations and providing much-needed economic momentum for the sector. Global demand for Australian almonds continues to be buoyant, partly supported by improved international prices that have benefited grower revenues. However, attention is now shifting to the approaching new harvest season, where weather risks—particularly heavy rainfall—are emerging as a critical variable. Harvests have already been delayed, compelling growers to adopt special drying protocols to maintain quality. As the market transitions to a focus on new crop prospects and the tail end of old crop inventories, participants are watching both supply and demand cues with increasing scrutiny.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery (Incoterm)	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	carmel, ssr, 18/20	US	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.81	+0.05	Steady
Almonds kernels	carmel, ssr 20/22	US	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.78	+0.05	Firm
Almonds kernels	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr (organic)	US	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.42	+0.04	Stable

 

Note: Prices for Spanish almonds (marcona, valencia, guara types) also remain supported, with current quotes in the 5.65–8.95 EUR/kg range ex Madrid, Spain.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Australia: Season-to-date almond sales are the second-highest ever, reflecting resilient underlying demand.
• Sales Decline: January 2026 sales were down 43% versus last year, mainly due to reduced inventory late in the season, not demand destruction.
• Global Demand: Remains strong for high-quality Australian almonds, with buyers maintaining keen interest despite fewer available stocks.
• International Prices: Improved prices have underpinned grower returns, adding to confidence, particularly amid tightening stocks.
• U.S. & Spain Context: European and U.S. prices are trending firm to steady, reflecting stable export demand and cautious inventory management.

📊 Fundamentals

• Yields: Growers saw production yields exceed earlier expectations, maintaining high season-to-date sales despite the January dip.
• Inventory: Lower ending inventories are a consequence of robust sales earlier in the season and exceptional export flows.
• Revenue: Higher international prices partially offset a slower sales pace late in the marketing year.
• Speculative Positioning: As inventories dwindle, market participants are cautious, with increased attention to the size, timing, and quality of the next Australian and U.S. crops.

⛅ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• Australia: Heavy rainfall in key growing regions has delayed the harvest, compelling growers to adopt drying protocols and prompting concerns over quality and timeliness.
• Implications: Delays could tighten short-term supplies further and heighten volatility in the early new crop period.
• Forecast: Continued monitoring required as extended wet weather may impact nut quality and final 2026 supply.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Australia: Strong season-to-date sales and yields, but inventories now low as season wraps up.
• United States: Stable supply with firm export prices; watch for new bloom and weather risk in California.
• Spain: Prices supported in latest offers, reflecting ongoing strong demand from European buyers.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Expect price firmness in the near term due to low ending stocks and harvest delays.
• Monitor Australian and U.S. weather closely—extended rain in Australia or poor flowering in California could amplify volatility.
• Buyers should book forward needs promptly to hedge against potential early-season shortages and further price rises.
• Growers and marketers: prioritize quality control post-harvest and be prepared for quick responses to international inquiries as new crop enters the market.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Expected Range (Next 3 Days, EUR/kg)	Outlook
US (Carmel, SSR, 18/20 – FAS)	6.81	6.75 – 6.90	Firm
US (Nonpareil, Organic – FOB)	9.42	9.35 – 9.50	Stable
Spain (Marcona – FOB)	8.95	8.85 – 9.05	Firm