Almonds: Export-Fuelled Recovery Meets India-Led Demand Shift

U.S. almonds are entering a phase of export‑driven recovery: February shipments jumped 12.2% year‑on‑year to 241.1 million pounds, powered by a 23.5% surge in exports, even as domestic use weakened. Export share climbed to 78% of total movement, underscoring how international demand – led by India, Europe and the Middle East – is stabilising prices and sentiment despite lingering headwinds in China and the U.S. market.

At the same time, spot almond kernel prices in key origins such as the U.S. and Spain have firmed modestly in early March 2026, reflecting tightening nearby availability and improved supply visibility from a California crop around 2.7 billion pounds. In India (the core focus region), strong structural demand growth for healthy snacks, rising incomes and potential import duty relief on U.S. nuts are setting the stage for sustained import needs from California. Weather conditions in California and India’s main consuming belt remain broadly supportive for logistics and quality in the very short term, though medium‑term yield risks will still hinge on bloom conditions, water availability and heat events. Overall, market sentiment is steady‑to‑positive, with buyers increasingly comfortable extending coverage, but still sensitive to tariff headlines and freight disruptions.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

February was a pivotal month for the almond market. Total U.S. almond shipments reached 241.1 million pounds, up 12.2% year‑on‑year, driven by exports of 196.1 million pounds (+23.5% YoY) while domestic shipments fell to 45.0 million pounds (‑19.8% YoY). Exports thus accounted for 78% of total movement, compared with a more typical 73–75%, clearly signaling that global demand is pulling product out of California even as U.S. consumption softens.

Season‑to‑date (August–February), shipments stand at 1,517.8 million pounds, still 4.4% below last year but improving from a 7.1% deficit in January. This narrowing gap confirms that momentum is turning more constructive as the season progresses, in line with other recent position reports pointing to export‑led volume support. The industry’s crop receipts of 2,679.1 million pounds, with an estimated final crop around 2.7 billion pounds, provide improved visibility on available supply and have helped stabilise forward selling.

On the demand side, India, Europe and the Middle East are the key engines. February shipments to India reached 41.3 million pounds, taking the season total to 213.1 million pounds (‑4% YoY). Europe received 74.2 million pounds in February and now totals 384.0 million pounds for the season (+1%), while the Middle East imported 28.1 million pounds in February, with a season total of 233.1 million pounds (+5%). By contrast, China & Hong Kong combined saw just 3.6 million pounds in February and 20.2 million pounds season‑to‑date, a steep 52% decline, confirming ongoing displacement of U.S. product by Australian almonds in that corridor.

📈 Current Almond Kernel Price Snapshot (EUR)

Origin	Product	Type / Grade	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR/kg)	Market Sentiment
US	Almonds kernels	Carmel, SSR 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.81	6.76	+0.05	Firm / mildly bullish
US	Almonds kernels	Carmel, SSR 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.78	6.73	+0.05	Firm / mildly bullish
US	Almonds kernels	Natural Nonpareil 27/30 (organic)	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.42	9.38	+0.04	Steady to firm
ES	Almond kernels	Marcona 12/14	Madrid	FOB	6.70	6.65	+0.05	Firm
ES	Almond kernels	Valencia 10/12	Madrid	FOB	5.70	5.65	+0.05	Firm
ES	Almond kernels	Organic Nonpareil 27/30	Madrid	FOB	11.55	11.55	0.00	Stable / high premium

Over the past three reporting dates (late February to mid‑March 2026), U.S. and Spanish almond kernel prices in EUR terms have edged up by roughly EUR 0.10–0.15/kg, confirming a mildly bullish undertone. This aligns with the improving export shipment data and growing confidence in clearing the 2025/26 crop without excessive carryout, despite a still‑ample global supply base.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

From a global perspective, California remains the dominant supplier, and the latest USDA and Almond Board data point to a 2025 California crop near 2.7 billion pounds, modestly below prior record levels but still historically high. Crop receipts at 2,679.1 million pounds suggest the harvest is nearly complete, significantly reducing supply uncertainty. This transparency is helping both sellers and buyers to calibrate coverage without the risk premia that characterised earlier drought‑affected seasons.

Global almond demand reached roughly 1.7 million metric tons in 2024 and continues to expand at around 5–7% per year, led by Asia‑Pacific and the Middle East. Within this, India is the standout: U.S. almonds held about 93% of India’s almond import share in 2024–25, and the country’s almond consumption for MY 2025/26 is projected near 196,000 metric tons, supported by strong growth of the broader healthy snacks segment. This structural pull is fully consistent with February’s robust 41.3 million pound shipment figure from the Raw Text, even if India’s season‑to‑date imports are still 4% below last year.

Europe and the Middle East also show resilient demand. Europe’s season‑to‑date imports from the U.S. are marginally higher (+1%), while the Middle East is up 5%, reflecting continued population growth, expanding confectionery and bakery usage, and substitution away from more expensive nuts. These regions, together with India, have more than offset the pronounced weakness in China & Hong Kong (‑52% season‑to‑date), where higher U.S. tariffs and Australia’s competitive position have eroded California’s share.

Within the U.S., domestic shipments remain a soft spot. February domestic movement of 45.0 million pounds is nearly 20% below last year, reflecting inflation‑driven downtrading by consumers, some substitution into cheaper snacks, and cautious retailer inventory management. This domestic weakness is important but currently more than compensated by export strength, as evidenced by total commitments of 593.4 million pounds (+2.8% YoY) and robust new sales of 246.2 million pounds in February (+11.5% YoY), according to the Raw Text.

📊 Global Production & Trade Snapshot

Region / Country	Role	2024/25 Production* (approx.)	Key Trade / Demand Notes
US (California)	Largest producer & exporter	~2.7 billion lbs (1.22 mmt)	Exports >70% of crop; strong demand from India, EU, ME; weaker China.
Spain	Key EU producer	~0.15–0.20 mmt	Supplies EU & Mediterranean markets; complements California shipments.
Australia	Southern hemisphere exporter	~0.14–0.16 mmt	Gaining share in China under favourable tariffs.
India	Major importer & consumer	Minimal commercial production	Imports ~93% from US; demand near 196,000 mt and rising.
Middle East / N. Africa	Import‑dependent region	N/A	Growing use in snacking, confectionery; sensitive to logistics disruptions.

*Production figures outside the U.S. are indicative ranges compiled from trade and industry sources.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Drivers

Shipments and commitments. The Raw Text highlights a healthy forward book: total commitments at 593.4 million pounds are 2.8% above last year, and February new sales of 246.2 million pounds are up 11.5% YoY. This suggests buyers are actively locking in coverage, taking advantage of still‑competitive prices and clearer supply visibility, and reduces the risk of a burdensome carryout at season end.

Export mix and market concentration. With exports now at 78% of February shipments, the industry is increasingly exposed to external shocks: trade policy changes, currency swings and freight disruptions can rapidly translate into price volatility. India alone has recently exceeded 400 million pounds of annual imports from California, solidifying its position as the single most critical outlet for U.S. almonds. Any shift in Indian duties or quality rules therefore has outsized impact on global pricing.

Tariffs and India’s duty outlook. Ongoing India–US trade negotiations and the prospect of import duty relief on U.S. nuts are particularly important. Industry commentary suggests that tariff cuts could reduce landed costs of U.S. nuts in India by up to 50%, materially stimulating consumption and import volumes. While the exact timing and magnitude remain uncertain, even partial relief would likely tighten U.S. exportable surpluses and support prices in EUR terms.

Logistics and regional challenges. The Raw Text notes logistics challenges in the Middle East, which may include Red Sea shipping risks, congestion and higher freight rates. These issues can temporarily distort trade flows, forcing rerouting via longer passages and increasing on‑the‑water stocks. While such disruptions can dampen near‑term shipments into some ports, they also encourage buyers to bring forward purchases and hold more inventory inland, which is supportive of forward commitments.

Speculative and fund positioning. Although almonds trade primarily via physical and OTC channels rather than central futures exchanges like CBOT, there is still a speculative component through merchant inventories, long‑term contracts and cross‑hedging against other nuts. The recent firming of kernel prices in both the U.S. and Spain suggests merchants are less willing to discount and are confident the current crop will find a home at or above today’s levels.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

Weather remains a key medium‑term risk for almond yields. In California, latest forecasts for the main almond‑growing valleys (Central Valley stretching roughly from Sacramento through Fresno and Bakersfield) over the next 7 days indicate generally mild to warm conditions, with limited precipitation and no major frost events flagged. This is broadly favourable for post‑bloom nut set and early development, though continued attention will be needed on water allocations and summer heat waves.

For India – the focus region on the demand side – domestic almond production is small and concentrated mostly in Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Near‑term weather there is more relevant to local orchard viability and consumer demand seasonality than to global supply. Forecasts point to typical late‑winter to early‑spring variability: cool nights, mild days, and isolated rain or snow in higher elevations, without indications of widespread damage to orchards. However, given India’s growing reliance on imports rather than domestic production, these conditions are unlikely to materially alter the global supply‑demand balance in the coming weeks.

In the Middle East and North Africa, where almonds are also grown but in much smaller global share, a mix of cool to mild temperatures and limited rainfall is expected in key producing pockets over the near term, broadly neutral for yields. For Spain, recent months have seen more normalisation of rainfall after previous drought concerns, which supports 2025 production potential, though long‑term water scarcity remains a structural risk.

📉 Regional Demand Focus: India (IN)

India is both the largest export destination for California almonds and the central demand focus of this report. The Raw Text shows February shipments of 41.3 million pounds to India and a season‑to‑date tally of 213.1 million pounds, just 4% below last year despite earlier season weakness. This confirms that Indian buyers returned strongly to the market in recent months, taking advantage of competitive prices and expectations of softer duties ahead.

India’s almond consumption is forecast near 195,840 metric tons in MY 2025/26, with the country’s healthy snacks segment projected to grow from around USD 3.9 billion in 2024 to over USD 6.1 billion by 2030. Almonds are a key beneficiary of this trend, used both in traditional festive gifting and in year‑round snacking, bakery, dairy and plant‑based products. Combined with potential tariff relief under a broader India–US trade agreement, this suggests sustained, structurally rising demand for U.S. almonds in India over the medium term.

From a pricing perspective inside India, wholesale inshell and kernel prices saw strong rallies through 2024 into early 2025, before showing some pressure from peak levels as large volumes arrived. For example, inshell Nonpareil prices around April 2025 were quoted near ₹22,100–₹22,800 per 40 kg, equivalent to roughly USD 6.5–6.7/kg at the time. Current landed costs remain elevated but could correct further if duties are reduced, likely boosting volume growth but capping retail price upside in rupee terms.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Market outlook (next 1–3 months). Based primarily on the Raw Text fundamentals, the almond market appears to be transitioning from oversupply anxiety toward a more balanced, export‑led normalization. Shipments are improving, commitments are slightly ahead of last year, and the crop size around 2.7 billion pounds is large but manageable. Price action in EUR over recent weeks supports a view of a gently firming market rather than a sharp rally.

Key swing factors in the short term will be: (1) confirmation of ongoing strong shipments to India, Europe and the Middle East; (2) clarity on India’s import duty regime for U.S. nuts; and (3) any weather‑related revisions to California’s new‑crop outlook. Logistics developments in the Middle East and freight routes (e.g., Red Sea) will add noise and may create regional price dislocations but are unlikely, for now, to overturn the broader trend of steady‑to‑firm prices.

📌 Trading Outlook – Actionable Points

• Indian importers & roasters (IN): Consider extending coverage modestly on current dips for Q2–Q3 2026 needs, especially for standard grades like Carmel SSR 18/20 and Nonpareil 27/30. Export‑driven strength and potential duty cuts mean downside from current EUR price levels is limited, while upside risk remains if shipments stay robust.
• European buyers: With EU shipments already slightly above last year and Spanish prices firming, maintain at least average forward coverage. Use any short‑term softness from currency moves or freight easing to lock in Q4 2026 volumes.
• Middle East buyers: Given logistics challenges, prioritise reliability of supply over marginal price savings. Structuring staggered shipments and diversifying ports of discharge can mitigate disruption risk even if it entails a small premium.
• U.S. handlers & exporters: With domestic demand weak, continue to prioritise export programs into India, Europe and the Middle East. Avoid aggressive discounting; the improving shipment trend and firm commitments justify holding price ideas near current EUR levels.
• Speculative/merchant positions: Maintain a cautiously long bias in kernels, particularly in high‑demand grades, but be prepared to hedge if new‑crop forecasts or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Focus on calendar spreads rather than outright flat‑price bets to manage volatility.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg, key reference offers)

Product (Reference)	Region / Basis	Current (Mar 18, 2026)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Short‑Term Trend
US Carmel SSR 18/20	FAS US, landed IN	6.81	6.80–6.85	6.80–6.90	6.80–6.95	Slightly firm; export demand steady, no major shocks expected.
US Carmel SSR 20/22	FAS US, landed IN	6.78	6.75–6.80	6.75–6.85	6.75–6.90	Stable to firm on strong buying interest from India and ME.
US Nonpareil 27/30 organic	FOB US, landed IN / EU	9.42	9.40–9.50	9.40–9.55	9.40–9.60	Premium segment stable; limited supply, steady demand.
ES Marcona 12/14	FOB ES, into IN / EU	6.70	6.70–6.75	6.70–6.80	6.70–6.80	Firm but range‑bound; local EU demand balanced.

These 3‑day ranges are indicative and based on the current firm sentiment from the Raw Text (strong exports, improving shipments, stable supply) and the modest upward drift in observed EUR offers. Barring an abrupt policy announcement from India or a sudden logistics shock, short‑term price moves are likely to remain within these narrow corridors.