Institutional Money Flows Into Almonds as Riverina Mega-Portfolio Hits the Market

The global almond market is seeing renewed institutional interest, underscored by the sale of a major irrigated portfolio in Australia’s Riverina region, while kernel prices in the US and EU drift modestly higher in EUR terms.

A 3,908-hectare almond-focused portfolio in the Lachlan and Murrumbidgee regions is coming to market with an expected value above EUR 100 million, highlighting strong appetite for scalable, water-secure assets and long-term exposure to export-driven nut demand. The assets combine mature, high-yield orchards, secure water entitlements, and existing lease income, positioning them as a benchmark transaction for Australian almonds. Against this backdrop, reference prices for US and Spanish kernels have inched up over recent weeks, suggesting steady demand and limited short-term downside for well-positioned growers and traders.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

Almond kernel prices in key export hubs have firmed slightly over late February and early March in EUR terms. US-origin Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 grades are offered around EUR 6.80–6.85/kg FAS Washington, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 from the US trades close to EUR 9.45/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona and Valencia kernels, important for Mediterranean and EU snack and confectionery demand, are generally in the EUR 5.65–8.95/kg FOB Madrid range, with most grades edging up by about EUR 0.05/kg over the past three weeks.

Origin / Type	Spec	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Change (EUR/kg)	Location / Terms
US Almonds kernels	Carmel SSR 18/20	6.81	+0.09 vs 21 Feb	Washington D.C., FAS
US Almonds kernels	Carmel SSR 20/22	6.78	+0.10 vs 20 Feb	Washington D.C., FAS
US Almonds kernels	Nonpareil, natural, 27/30, organic	9.42	+0.09 vs 20 Feb	Washington D.C., FOB
ES Almond kernels	Marcona 14/16	8.30	+0.10 vs 20 Feb	Madrid, FOB
ES Almond kernels	Valencia 10/12	5.70	+0.10 vs 20 Feb	Madrid, FOB

These gradual increases suggest a mildly bullish undertone, supported by steady offtake from snack, confectionery, and plant-based dairy segments, and by the perception that current farmgate returns must remain attractive enough to sustain high-value irrigated acreage.

🌍 Supply, Assets & Water Security

The Lachlan and Murrumbidgee Portfolio in Australia’s Riverina spans 3,908 hectares and represents around one-fifth of Australia’s almond production regionally. Lachlan Valley Farm accounts for 3,822 hectares with 920 hectares already planted to almonds, while White Road Orchard contributes a further 81 planted hectares within its 87-hectare footprint. Historical yields of roughly 3 tonnes per hectare underline a productive, well-managed asset base.

Tree age is a key strength: the average 16.5-year profile at Lachlan Valley Farm and 9.5 years at White Road Orchard provide a balance of mature, stable-yield blocks and relatively young plantings with upside. Importantly, the portfolio carries robust water entitlements—over 10,300 ML of groundwater in the Lower Lachlan, plus more than 3,400 ML of high- and general-security river and Murrumbidgee irrigation water. This combination of bores, channels, and on-farm storage significantly reduces production risk and enhances resilience against drought and allocation volatility.

📊 Infrastructure, Income & Investor Appeal

The portfolio comes with extensive infrastructure: homesteads and worker accommodation, workshops, storage sheds, irrigation and fertigation systems, and on-site dam capacity. These features limit the need for near-term capex and allow investors to focus on operational optimisation and incremental development, including 46 hectares identified for further almond expansion. Proximity to key processing hubs such as Griffith, Robinvale, and Mildura reduces logistics costs and strengthens links to export channels.

A notable component is the lease of 215 hectares to an ASX-listed almond grower and processor through 2030, creating a diversified income stream alongside direct production. This structure lowers cash flow volatility and aligns the asset with the integrated value chain. At an expected sale value exceeding EUR 100 million, the transaction underlines continued confidence in large-scale irrigated horticulture and in almonds as a core permanent crop for institutional portfolios.

☀️ Weather & Production Risk (Australia & Key Origins)

For Australia’s Riverina, near-term weather patterns and water allocations remain critical for yield outcomes and operating margins. With substantial groundwater and surface water entitlements already in place on the Lachlan and Murrumbidgee properties, short-run rainfall variability is less threatening than for less-secured farms, but prolonged dryness or policy-driven allocation cuts would still affect pumping costs and long-term planning.

Globally, almond production is still dominated by California and, to a lesser extent, Spain and Australia. While current kernel prices imply no acute supply shock, markets remain sensitive to frost risk during bloom, extreme heat during nut fill, and water constraints. Assets with strong, diversified water portfolios—like the Riverina portfolio—therefore attract a risk premium and help anchor confidence in forward availability for major buyers.

📆 Outlook & Trading Implications

Market sentiment around almonds is broadly constructive. The Riverina portfolio sale signals that institutional capital continues to view almonds as a long-duration, inflation-resilient asset class, particularly where secure water underpins consistent yields. On the physical side, modest price appreciation in US and Spanish kernels suggests a balanced but firm market rather than a sharp rally, with buyers willing to pay slightly more to secure quality grades and reliable origin.

Medium term, further consolidation of high-quality orchards into larger portfolios could tighten the availability of standalone farms but improve overall professional management and yield stability. For traders and industrial users, this favours longer-term supply contracts with well-capitalised growers and vertically integrated players, especially where lease structures and processing links, such as those seen in the Riverina portfolio, reduce counterparty risk.

💡 Trading Outlook (Next 4–6 Weeks)

• Buyers in Europe and Asia may consider gradually covering a larger share of Q2–Q3 needs at current EUR levels, as recent firming suggests limited downside for standard grades.
• Growers and portfolio owners with strong water security can hold a moderately bullish stance, prioritising quality and certification to capture premiums in organic and specialty segments.
• Investors should monitor the Riverina transaction as a reference point for valuing irrigated almond assets, particularly the pricing of secure water entitlements and lease-backed income streams.

📍 3-Day Directional Price View (EUR)

• US kernels (Carmel SSR, Nonpareil, FAS/FOB US): Slightly firm to stable; mild upward bias as buyers test higher offers.
• Spanish kernels (Marcona, Valencia, FOB Madrid): Stable to mildly firmer, especially for premium Marcona grades with tight availability.
• Australian-origin kernels: Directionally supported by positive asset valuations and strong investor sentiment, with limited discounting expected on high-spec product.