Stable Chinese Dried Apple Prices While Turkish Apricots Stay Firm

Chinese dried apple cube prices in Europe are unchanged in mid‑March, while Turkish dried apricots remain elevated after last year’s severe frost and ongoing tight stocks. Weather in key Chinese apple regions is seasonally mild and stable, limiting immediate crop concerns and helping keep the dried apple tone calm, but constrained global apple supply and firm competing dried fruit prices cap downside.

Dried apple cubes of Chinese origin delivered into continental Europe are trading in a narrow range around EUR 4.25–4.35/kg FCA, with no change over the past four weeks across main cut sizes. Stable short‑term demand from European bakery and cereal users and adequate stocks at packers are keeping the market well balanced. In contrast, Turkish dried apricots FOB Malatya are holding at comparatively high levels amid slow replenishment of exportable supply and cautious selling. Mild, mostly dry weather in northern and north‑central China and cool, showery conditions in Malatya are seasonally normal and not yet a price driver.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Chinese origin dried apple cubes loaded in the Netherlands are indicated around:

• 5–7 mm cubes: ~EUR 4.35/kg FCA Dordrecht
• 8–10 mm cubes: ~EUR 4.25/kg FCA Dordrecht
• 10–12 mm cubes: ~EUR 4.30/kg FCA Dordrecht

The intra‑spec spread remains very tight (about EUR 0.10/kg between smallest and largest cubes), reflecting balanced demand across applications and limited incentive to substitute between sizes.

Turkish dried apricots No.7 sulphured FOB Malatya are indicated around the equivalent of EUR 6.4–6.6/kg, down slightly from peak levels after the 2025 frost shock but still historically high versus pre‑frost seasons. Recent global market commentary continues to describe dried apricot prices as “high and firm” on limited stock and slow export pace.

Product	Origin	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1‑Month Trend
Apple dried cubes 5–7 mm	CN	NL, FCA	4.35	Stable
Apple dried cubes 8–10 mm	CN	NL, FCA	4.25	Stable
Apple dried cubes 10–12 mm	CN	NL, FCA	4.30	Stable
Apricots dried No.7 sulphured	TR	Malatya, FOB	≈6.40	Slightly softer from highs

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather (CN, TR)

China remains the world’s largest apple producer and a key supplier of processed apple products including dried apples and concentrate. Official and industry estimates point to a smaller global fresh apple crop in 2025/26, largely due to lower output in China and Turkey, which tightens raw material availability for processing despite China’s still dominant share.

European demand for dried apples is underpinned by steady use in bakery, cereal and snack applications, with research pointing to solid growth in Europe’s dried apple consumption and product integration. Chinese exporters continue to target European hubs such as the Netherlands and Germany, supported by competitive pricing and scale in processing. Trade data and industry reports highlight China’s strong position in apple juice concentrate exports as well, confirming robust processing infrastructure that also underpins dried apple supply.

Weather in key Chinese apple regions is currently benign. Forecasts for Yantai in Shandong show mostly sunny to hazy sunshine with daytime highs around 6–14°C and no major cold events over the next three days, while Xi’an in Shaanxi is expected to see hazy sun and mild temperatures up to 18–19°C. These conditions are seasonally normal and do not present immediate frost risk to orchards.

In Turkey’s Malatya region, light rain and cool temperatures (highs around 9–10°C) are forecast, with occasional showers through the coming days. After the severe frost in April 2025 that heavily damaged Malatya apricot orchards and sharply reduced dried apricot output, stocks remain tight and exporters are cautious, keeping a firm floor under dried apricot prices and indirectly supporting the wider dried fruit complex.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Cross‑Commodity Signals

Global fresh apple production for 2025/26 is forecast to fall about 5% to around 81–82 million tonnes, the lowest level in five years, as declines in China and Turkey outweigh gains in the United States. This reduces the pool of fruit available for juice and drying, even if Chinese processors can still draw on large domestic crops. At the same time, exports of Chinese processed apple products, particularly juice concentrate, have surged in value, indicating solid overseas demand for apple‑based ingredients.

In Europe, the dried apple market benefits from broadening applications in bakery and snacks, and from health‑oriented consumer trends that favour fruit ingredients over refined sugars. However, elevated prices and tight supply in competing dried fruits like Turkish apricots constrain substitution and keep blended fruit ingredient costs relatively high, even as some buyers look to dried apples as a comparatively cheaper inclusion. Recent commodity reports still emphasize limited Malatya stocks and firm dried apricot pricing into Q1 2026.

📆 Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

3–5 day market tone: With stable Chinese dried apple prices in Europe, normal early‑spring weather in key Chinese growing regions, and firm Turkish dried apricot levels, the near‑term outlook for dried apple cubes is sideways with a mild upward bias if logistics or currency costs edge higher.

• Buyers (industry users): Consider covering Q2–early Q3 needs at current levels around EUR 4.25–4.35/kg FCA for Chinese cubes, as downside appears limited by tighter global fresh apple balances and elevated competing dried fruit prices.
• Sellers (exporters/packers): Maintain offer discipline; aggressive discounting is not warranted given supportive fundamentals and healthy European demand. Focus on securing forward commitments with key industrial users rather than spot volume chasing.
• Traders: Look for relative value opportunities between Chinese dried apples and high‑priced Turkish apricots, particularly in blends and mixed dried fruit contracts where apples can partially substitute at a discount.

🔭 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• CN → EU dried apple cubes (FCA EU hub, EUR): 4.25–4.35/kg, sideways over the next three days; no weather‑driven catalyst expected in Shandong/Shaanxi in this window.
• TR dried apricots FOB Malatya (EUR‑equivalent): ~6.4–6.6/kg, firm/sideways; cool, wet local weather and tight stocks support offers but do not imply immediate further price spikes.