Almond Market: Good Trade Volume Prospects Despite Increased Logistics Costs Due to Drought

The Almond Board of California has released the December position report for almond market with shipments of +229.4 million pounds compared to 206.3 million pounds last year for an increase of +11.2 percent, reports Summit Premium Tree Nuts

Year-to-date shipments

Shipments are now at +1.144 billion pounds compared to last year’s 1.041 billion pounds for an increase of +9.87 percent!

Crop receipts

All eyes have been looking for this number for months and we are now at +2.228 billion pounds compared to last year’s 2.376 billion pounds for Decrease of -6.24 percent for December receipts. We will not reach the objective crop estimate from July 2024 of 2.6 billion pounds. At best, the industry experts predict we will have a crop of 2.35 billion pounds. Thus all of the predictions for months that the crop would be short are true. With the higher level of serious damage in the crop, means we will lose an additional 100 million pounds of almonds to market, making the actual marketable crop at only 2.25 billion pounds.

Market

The almond shipments did not disappoint as we reached 229.4 million pounds shipped in December. We have a smaller crop and yet we are up +9.87% for shipments for the season! India led the way with 1,221 loads shipped in December. The new sales for December were 219.4 million pounds, the industry is now at 53.2 percent sold for the new crop and carry-in. Packers and growers are in a comfortable position as are ahead of last year’s sales percentage now. Almond prices have been rising over the past few weeks with the anticipation that the crop receipts would show that the crop is lighter in quantity than what the objective crop estimate had predicted. Prices on NP X have risen by approximately 10 cents per pound, Carmel Sup and SSR increased by 5 to 10 cents per pound, and Inshell increased by almost 10 cents per pound over this past month. Demand has remained very strong from many markets overseas as well as domestically. Availability of smaller size kernels is limited. Main inventory items are larger sized kernels being 23/25 to 18/20.

Shipping/Freight

Unfortunately, this topic is being discussed again! The Drought in Panama has increased all shipping costs through this lane and vessels/FCLs traveling in the Middle East, near the Red Seas have seen substantial increases in their charges as well due to the local conflicts there. Some shipping lines are suspending shipments to certain destinations and rolls are occurring again to certain regions.

Trees

The bloom will be starting in mid-February and ending at the beginning of March. Overall trees look healthy with new growth, red wood appearing at the tops of the trees. Although with the lower pricing to growers, not all growers have provided the full inputs into the trees and completed their winter sanitation in the orchards. The temperatures have been cool in the nights allowing for ample chill hours for the trees. We will keep you updated as the bloom begins.

Rain/Snow

As of January 1, our Snow Pack in California was extremely low. However, over the past week, we have received some needed snow storms in the ^mountains which will assist our snow pack and hopefully get us back to a normal/average level for this time of the year.

Currency

The US Dollar has stayed weaker with many currencies making almonds appear cheaper.
1 Euro= 1.10 US Dollars
1 US Dollars= 7.17 Chinese Yuan
1 US Dollar= 83.01 Indian Rupee
1 US Dollar= 3.67 UAE Dirham

Outlook

With the robust sales in December and the beginning of the year, we should see strong shipments for January. Sales for the first ten days of January have been excellent thus far! Last year the industry had excellent shipments for both February and March, so it will be interesting if the market can come close to those levels for both February and March this year.

GULFOOD: You can visit Summit Premium Tree Nuts’ booth at the Gulfood in Dubai during February 19-22, 2024. SHK Saeed Hall 3, Stand S3-C44

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