Almond Report: Prices Are Attractive

The California Almond Board has released the November position report with shipments of +204.30 million pounds compared to 220.91 million pounds last year for a decrease of 7.5 percent.

November shipments

Year-to-date shipments

835 million worth of products were shipped compared to 872.9 million pounds last year for a decrease of 4.28 percent.

Crop receipts

We are at +2.150 Billion Pounds compared to 2.312 billion pounds last year for a decrease of 7.0 percent.

Market situation

The market has awakened with a surge in demand during the past week. Buyers from all around the world have come in to purchase large volumes of almonds. The Dollar has weakened compared to the Euro stimulating demand from Europe. Prices have reached a very attractive level which has enticed the markets to take advantage of the value of almonds. Prices have dipped on the bottom end by 5 cents while bigger sizes which had been at a premium have come off by 5-10 cents during the past few weeks compacting overall prices.

New Sales during November were at 200 million pounds while last year we did 226 million in November for a decrease of 11.26 percent. The Industry is now sold at 45.1 percent for the new crop and carry in while last year sold at 48.5 percent.

Acreage

The Almond Board and Land IQ have updated the 2022 bearing acres at 1.342 million acres and non-bearing acres at 294,289 acres for a total of 1.637 million acres now. Last year we were at 1.309 million bearing acres and non-bearing at 352,875 acres for a total of 1.662 million acres. Thus, this is the first time in decades we have seen a downturn in total almond acres in Californian. Thus, we have reached the Summit and now we are starting to see a decline in total almond acres in California.

Rains

California has welcomed some excellent rains in the past few weeks. Our rain season totals from October 1 to December 12 are now at +5.85 inches compared to the average normal years at 3.98 inches. Our recent storm this past weekend has dropped over 4-5 feet of snow in the Lake Tahoe area! It is a welcomed sight to see the white blanket of snow covering the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Rains are ahead of schedule thus far this season.

Trees

The almond trees are in their dormant stage now. Growers are knocking off any mummies on the trees( almonds that stuck to the limbs during harvest and did not get harvested). The Bud Set on the trees looks outstanding. Implying the next crop could be good. Keep in mind that with the Frost this past season, the trees produced a smaller size crop this season so the trees were not stressed and slightly rested.

Shipment outlook

We expect the December shipments to be respectable. On paper, they appear to be tracking at the same pace as last year’s shipments. Year-to-date shipments are tracking at a minus 4.28 percent. Last Season we shipped a total of 2.633 billion pounds. If we continue the pace of -4.28 percent that means we will only ship approximately 2.520 billion pounds, meaning we may have a carry-out with an additional 100 million pounds more than last year.

Import/Export Statistics

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