Almonds in South Kashmir: Structural Decline, Climate Pressures & Global Competition

The almond market in South Kashmir is undergoing a profound transformation marked by the near-collapse of local production, a shift to apple cultivation, and intensified global competition—trends rooted in long-term structural, climatic, and economic forces. Over the last two decades, once-flourishing almond orchards in regions like Khiram, Sirhama, and Marhama have given way almost entirely to high-density apple plantations or non-agricultural developments. Official data from Anantnag district chart an unmistakable downward trajectory: acreage has dwindled from 225 hectares in 2008–09 (producing 112 metric tonnes) to a mere 8 hectares in 2016–17, with production reduced to just 8 metric tonnes—a status quo projected to persist through at least 2025–26. This is not a temporary phase, but the outcome of sustained market, environmental, and policy pressures.

Farmers highlight an array of severe challenges underpinning this decline. Market prices for local almonds have fallen and become increasingly volatile, while erratic weather—including untimely rainfall during flowering, late frosts, and warming winters reducing necessary chilling hours—has rendered yields unpredictable. Pest and disease pressures have risen in the face of climate instability. Simultaneously, government-subsidized high-density apple orchards, improved planting materials, and more reliable marketing infrastructure attract growers seeking better, faster, and more predictable returns. Imported almonds, especially from California, compound these issues, flooding markets with year-round, uniform-grade product, making it even harder for local growers to compete. Without immediate policy intervention, targeted support, and innovation for almond cultivation, the sector in South Kashmir faces a potentially irreversible decline, solidifying apples as the region’s future crop and rendering almonds a relic of the past.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr, 18/20	FAS	6.72	6.72	2026-02-21	Neutral
Almonds kernels	US	carmel, ssr 20/22	FAS	6.68	6.68	2026-02-20	Neutral
Almonds kernels (Organic)	US	natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr	FOB	9.33	9.33	2026-02-20	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• South Kashmir collapse: Production in Anantnag district down to 8 metric tonnes by 2016–17 and expected to remain at this historic low through 2025–26.
• Switch to Apples: Massive grower transition—entire karewa slopes replaced by high-density apple orchards.
• Import Pressure: Imported almonds from California dominate domestic retail, offering year-round availability, superior grading, and strong distribution. Local supply is now largely insignificant.
• Demand: Domestic demand for almonds in India continues to grow, but is almost entirely met through imports, further marginalizing local production.

📊 Fundamental Drivers

• Climate risks: Reduced winter chilling hours, untimely precipitation, and late frosts undermine yields.
• Pest & Disease: Warmer winters foster increased pest and fungal pressure.
• Economic Incentives: More predictable and profitable apple returns, government subsidies, and extension support drive crop switching.
• Market Dynamics: Local almonds lose out against uniform, readily available imported US almonds, facing poor market infrastructure and lack of access to premium planting material.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• South Kashmir: Persistent trend toward warmer winters and erratic spring weather continues to diminish almond yield potential. Without a reversal or innovation in crop management, climate headwinds are set to endure.
• California (US – key exporter): Mild improvements in rainfall over 2025–2026 likely secure stable output, but water stress and climate volatility remain long-term risks.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Region/Country	2025E Production (Metric Tonnes)	Trend	Observations
South Kashmir (Anantnag)	8	Stable at historic low	Structural decline; unlikely to recover soon
India (all states)	Marginal	Flat/Decline	India remains highly import-dependent
California (US)	~1.3 million	Stable	Dominates global export markets
Spain	~100,000	Stable/Up	Minor global player relative to US

📌 Key Insights & Trading Outlook

• South Kashmir’s almond production is effectively at subsistence scale; risk of further decline remains high amid enduring climate and market headwinds.
• Indian domestic demand is met almost solely through imports—California will retain price influence.
• Global price environment neutral with little catalyst for sharp appreciation or decline barring weather-driven supply shocks in California.
• Policymakers hoping to revive South Kashmir’s almond sector must focus on climate resilience, high-value niche varieties, and market access.
• Market participants should monitor California acreage reports and water availability for price clues; no immediate supply threats appear in early 2026.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Direction
US Export (FAS)	Carmel, SSR 18/20	6.72	6.66 – 6.75	Stable/Neutral
US Export (FAS)	Carmel, SSR 20/22	6.68	6.64 – 6.70	Stable/Neutral
US Export (FOB)	Natural, Organic Nonpareil	9.33	9.25 – 9.35	Stable/Neutral