Almonds Market Update: Middle East Shipping Delays Squeeze UAE Supply, Support Prices

The global almond market is facing significant turbulence as shipping disruptions in the Middle East delay critical shipments to the UAE, a major import and redistribution hub. As a pivotal crossroads for almond trade—especially for US-origin and Spanish-origin kernels—the UAE’s bottleneck reverberates through supply chains, causing logistical headaches and fueling bullish sentiment in the spot market. Exporters are battling backlogs at regional ports, driving buyers to seek alternate suppliers or hold back purchases amid uncertainty.

While core supply and demand fundamentals remain robust, current availability for UAE-bound shipments has become constrained, leading to cautious but notable price advances in key grades. Adding complexity, speculative activity seems heightened as market participants react to evolving disruption timelines, feeding short-term volatility.

📈 Prices: Almond Market Benchmarks

Product	Origin	Grade/Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Almonds kernels	US	Carmel, SSR 18/20	Washington D.C.	6.76	6.72	+0.04	Bullish
Almonds kernels	US	Carmel, SSR 20/22	Washington D.C.	6.73	6.68	+0.05	Bullish
Almonds kernels (organic)	US	Natural, 27/30 Nonpareil SSR	Washington D.C.	9.38	9.33	+0.05	Bullish
Almond kernels	ES	Marcona, 12/14	Madrid	6.65	6.60	+0.05	Bullish
Almond kernels	ES	Natural, 27/30 Nonpareil SSR (organic)	Madrid	11.55	11.50	+0.05	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand: Disruptions Hit UAE Flow

• Shipping delays: Middle East naval bottlenecks delay almond arrivals, tightening immediate supply in the UAE and wider Gulf region.
• Purchasing patterns: Regional buyers delay procurement or shift to alternative origins, but Spanish and US shippers face similar uncertainties.
• Inventory drawdown: UAE importers report faster-than-anticipated stock drawdowns, forcing prices upward for prompt positions on core grades.
• Longer lead times: Extended shipping periods raise the risk of contract non-performance, increasing spot market interest and short-covering by processors.

📊 Fundamentals: Macro Drivers and Inventories

• US and Spanish crops: Recent harvests have been strong, with the US crop at near-normal volumes and Spain posting recovery after recent droughts, but shipping issues overshadow normal supply dynamics for the UAE corridor.
• Speculative positioning: Jump in speculative buying as traders anticipate prolonged disruption and further short-term upside in delivered prices, especially for high-demand grades (e.g., US Carmel and Nonpareil, Spanish Marcona).
• Global inventories: While global stocks remain ample, the disconnect between stocks and effective availability in the Gulf is supporting prices.

☁️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• California (US): Currently stable weather, minor concerns over late spring rains could affect bloom but not expected to cause widespread crop issues.
• Spain: Improved rainfall has eased drought concerns, supporting good yield prospects for 2026 crop.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2025/26 Production Forecast (mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (mt)
USA	1,370,000	260,000
Spain	105,000	18,000
Australia	130,000	10,000
UAE (import hub)	N/A	Est. 30,000 (drawdown)

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect further spot price firmness for UAE/Gulf-bound almonds until shipping disruption eases.
• Short-term bullish for prompt positions, especially on US Carmel and Spanish Marcona grades.
• Procurement managers should secure near-term requirements as delays risk contract defaults and supply gaps.
• Monitor shipping and insurance rates closely—potential for temporary price spikes on further bottlenecks.
• Consider longer-term coverage if UAE remains a primary destination; look for alternative routes or suppliers for flexible fulfillment.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Grade	Expected Price (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
US	Carmel SSR 18/20	6.80 – 6.84	Firm/Bullish
US	Natural, Nonpareil 27/30 Organic	9.42 – 9.50	Firm/Bullish
Spain	Marcona 12/14	6.67 – 6.75	Firm/Bullish
Spain	Natural, Nonpareil 27/30 Organic	11.57 – 11.65	Firm/Bullish