Azerbaijan’s Almond Exports Boom: Volumes Triple Amid Shifting Trade Patterns

The global almond market is undergoing a remarkable transformation, and Azerbaijan is at the center of this shift. Data from the State Statistics Committee of Azerbaijan reveals a stunning surge in the country’s almond exports in the period from January to November 2025. Export volumes more than doubled—up by 2.7 times year on year—while export values soared by 91%. These robust figures starkly illustrate Azerbaijan’s emergence as a key regional almond supplier, supported by rising demand in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and even parts of Europe.

Uzbekistan remains Azerbaijan’s largest export destination for almonds, but other markets such as Russia, Italy, and Georgia are rapidly gaining significance. In particular, exports to Russia expanded a staggering 9.5-fold compared to the previous year, reflecting shifting market dynamics and possibly a reorientation of regional trade due to changing consumer preferences, competitive pricing, and logistical advantages. However, not all export destinations registered growth—Turkey saw a sharp decline in imports from Azerbaijan. This shift signals both new growth opportunities and emerging competitive pressures.

As these trends unfold, almond market participants are carefully watching price movements on the international stage. Supplementary data indicates steady but varied almond kernel prices across Spain and the US, setting a backdrop for Azerbaijan’s evolving trade strategy.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date
US	Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr, 18/20	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.72	0.00	2026-02-21
US	Almonds kernels, carmel, ssr 20/22	Washington D.C.	FAS	6.68	0.00	2026-02-20
US	Almonds kernels, natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr, organic	Washington D.C.	FOB	9.33	0.00	2026-02-20
ES	Marcona 12/14	Madrid	FOB	6.60	-0.10	2026-02-20
ES	Marcona 14/16	Madrid	FOB	8.20	-0.10	2026-02-20
ES	Valencia 10/12	Madrid	FOB	5.60	-0.10	2026-02-20
ES	Guara, S/14	Madrid	FOB	6.10	-0.10	2026-02-20
ES	Natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr, organic	Madrid	FOB	11.50	-0.10	2026-02-20

Market Sentiment: Almond prices appear stable to slightly softer in Europe, while US prices remain unchanged week-on-week.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Azerbaijan’s almond export volume (Jan-Nov 2025): 1,138 tonnes (+2.7x YoY)
• Export value: USD 3.15 million (+91% YoY)
• Key destinations: Uzbekistan (616 t, USD 1.2 mn), Russia (176 t, USD 995k), Turkey (126 t, USD 398k), Italy (71 t, USD 290k), Georgia (147 t, USD 253k)
• Uzbekistan consolidated as main buyer (52% of volume), strong growth in Russia/Italy/Georgia, decline in Turkey
• European and US almond supplies remain competitive, with stable pricing supporting international trade flows

📊 Fundamentals

• Almond export growth from Azerbaijan is outpacing price growth, indicating aggressive volume expansion possibly driven by new production, competitive pricing, or favorable export policies
• Significant export increases to Russia and new markets like Italy and Georgia point to shifting trade relations and a search for new demand bases
• Turkey’s lower import suggests either oversupply, shifting preferences, or negotiation leverage in the market
• Prices in Europe (EUR 5.55-8.85/kg for conventional kernels, EUR 11.5/kg for organic) remain competitive versus US FAS and FOB offers (EUR 6.68-9.33/kg)

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Potential

• Weather in Azerbaijan and broader Central Asia is currently within seasonal norms – no significant extremes reported. Should hold production steady for next season, barring late frosts or drought
• Western US, Spain, and Italy: Mild winter and adequate rainfall support positive almond bloom and fruit set prospects, but watch for spring cold snaps

🌏 Global Comparison

Country	2025 Export Volume (t)	2025 Export Value (USD mn)
Azerbaijan	1,138	3.15
Uzbekistan	Est. 10,000+	Est. 25+
US	~700,000*	~4,200*
Spain	Est. 80,000+	Est. 400+

*Approximate figures for context

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Azerbaijan’s rapid export expansion and broader market reach signal continued competitive pricing, especially in Central Asia and the Caucasus
• Bullish signals from strong Russia and Italy demand, but be cautious: any shift in EU/Turkish demand or new supply from US/Spain could increase downward price pressure
• For processors/exporters: Leverage stable European/US prices to negotiate contracts. Lock in supply, especially if targeting Asian or Russian buyers
• For buyers: Monitor further developments in Azerbaijan’s output and possible late spring weather risks; consider forward purchasing for price certainty
• For traders: Watch for shifting import demand in Turkey – potential for rebound if local inventory depletes

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Indicative, EUR/kg)

Origin	Type	Current	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
US	Carmel SSR 18/20	6.72	6.70	6.70	6.70
US	Nonpareil, Organic	9.33	9.30	9.30	9.30
ES	Marcona 14/16	8.20	8.15	8.10	8.10
ES	Valencia 10/12	5.60	5.55	5.55	5.50

Sentiment: Marginally softer bias expected as new Azerbaijani supply and competition keeps buyers cautious.