Brazil must export more soybeans, meal, and oil in 2023, as a way to compensate for the absence of a large part of the Argentine production losses, induced by the unfavorable climate. The country must gain international market share in the exports of soybeans, meal, and oil, which also boosts the crush. Despite demand growth, the super crop must lead to an increase in stocks compared to 2022.
Brazilian soybean exports must be total 94 mln tons in 2023, above the 78.7 mln indicated for 2022. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand projection, released by SAFRAS & Mercado, and indicates an increase of 19% between one season and another. In the previous forecast, in January, the number was 93 mln.
SAFRAS indicates the crush at 53 mln tons in 2023 and 50.07 mln tons in 2022, with an increase of 6% between one season and another. In January, the estimate was 52 mln tons. SAFRAS indicates imports of 100 thousand tons for 2023, down 76% from 2022.
Total supply must increase 15%
As for the 2023 season, the total supply of soybeans must increase by 15%, rising to 156.378 mln tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 150.5 mln tons, growing 14% over the previous year. Thus, ending stocks must rise 53%, from 3.850 to 5.878 mln tons.
SAFRAS projects soymeal production at 40.82 mln tons in 2023, rising 6%. Exports are expected to rise 8% to 22 mln tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 19 mln, up 6%. Stocks must decline 8% to 2.058 mln tons.
Soyoil production must increase by 6% to 10.8 mln tons. Brazil is expected to export 2 mln tons, down 23%. Domestic consumption must rise by 18% to 9 mln tons. Use for biodiesel would increase 16% to 4.9 mln tons. The forecast for stocks shows a 35% decline to 335 thousand tons.
Source: Ukragroconsult
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