The cardamom market has been marked by a notable downward trajectory this week, with prices coming under pressure across all major grades. Subdued demand, combined with sustained arrivals at primary mandis, has led to a slip in both wholesale and retail prices. Traders highlighted that consumer and export demand has remained tepid, causing small cardamom to drop to $25.90–$34.90/kg (from $27.70–$35.50), and similar softness observed in both medium and large grades.
This trend echoes recent movements, where even premium quality saw declines, underscoring the market’s slow pace. As weather forecasts for major growing regions suggest stable but less-than-ideal rainfall patterns, the supply side remains comfortable but not expanding, limiting any immediate recovery potential. Compared to previous reports, volatility has subsided yet bearishness prevails, hinting at likely sideways-to-lower moves near term unless demand picks up notably. Market participants remain watchful for changes in crop outlook and new export orders, which could be pivotal for price stabilization or recovery. Overall sentiment: cautious, with a continued focus on demand-side triggers.
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Cardamom powder
FOB 24.85 €/kg
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Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
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FOB 16.30 €/kg
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📈 Cardamom Prices
| Product | Type | Organic | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR/kg) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder | – | Yes | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 24.85 | 24.73 | +0.12 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green, 7.5-8 mm | Yes | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 18.07 | 17.99 | +0.08 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.0-6.5 mm (99%) | Yes | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 16.30 | 16.22 | +0.08 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green, 8 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 24.31 | 24.19 | +0.12 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green 7-7.2 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 22.09 | 21.99 | +0.10 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green 7.5 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 23.51 | 23.40 | +0.11 | Neutral |
| Cardamom whole | green 6.5-6.8 mm | No | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 21.14 | 21.04 | +0.10 | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Demand: Persistent weakness in domestic demand, subdued export buying. Ramadan and festival demand yet to pick up.
- Supply: Adequate arrivals in major Indian mandis and continued shipments from key producing states.
- Inventory: Comfortable inventory levels for both traders and processors. Old crop stocks still present.
- Speculation: Speculative activity limited as fundamentals dominate current price direction.
- Recent trend: Price falls of $0.24–$0.60 per kg across major mandis and qualities; traders expect further softness if demand remains muted.
📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers
- Catalysts for movement:
- Weak consumer demand
- Sufficient mandi arrivals
- Lack of significant export orders
- No supply shocks from weather yet
- Historical comparison: This week’s declines continue the downtrend seen in earlier reports, but the pace has moderated compared to sharp drops last month.
- Key focus: Watch for shifts in festival export demand or unseasonal rains disrupting supply.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- India – Kerala & Tamil Nadu: Monsoon is stable but below average in some producing regions, resulting in moderate-to-good crop prospects, but not bumper yields.
- Forecast: No immediate threats from adverse weather; however, patchy rainfall and above-average temperatures could stress the late crop and affect medium- to long-term supply.
- Overall: Short-term bottlenecks unlikely; watch for La Niña updates and localized flood or drought news as harvest approaches.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Overview
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (t) | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|
| India | 22,000 | Sufficient; recent arrivals strong |
| Guatemala | 38,000 | Stable; some old crop carryover |
| Sri Lanka | 5,500 | Comfortable |
| Other (Nepal, Tanzania, Vietnam) | 3,000 | Small market share |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bears remain in control as fundamentals point to ongoing price weakness.
- Wait-and-watch strategy advised for exporters and wholesalers; avoid large inventory build-up until demand recovery signals appear.
- Procurement for processors can continue at current levels; only short-term spot purchases recommended.
- Monitor festival demand triggers and weather forecasts for signs of market reversal.
- Tactical buying may be considered if prices drop another 3–5% in coming days.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg, New Delhi, FOB)
| Product | Current | Forecast Day 1 | Forecast Day 2 | Forecast Day 3 | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom powder (Organic) | 24.85 | 24.80 | 24.70 | 24.65 | Bearish |
| Cardamom whole 7.5-8 mm (Organic) | 18.07 | 18.00 | 17.90 | 17.85 | Bearish |
| Cardamom whole 6.0-6.5 mm (Organic) | 16.30 | 16.22 | 16.15 | 16.10 | Bearish |
