The cardamom market remains rooted in stability as the steady influx of produce from Nepal and India keeps prices in check, despite recent political shifts that could have signaled volatility. While the coalition government in Nepal brings a sense of optimism for future governance, the immediate impact on commodity trade and market sentiment remains muted. Farmers in key producing regions continue to deliver robust volumes, resulting in balanced supply and demand dynamics. Premium-quality Nepalese large cardamom averages $16.80 – $17.04/kg, while medium grades trade around $14.19 – $14.49/kg. Indian price trends are closely aligned with Nepal due to strong cross-border trade flows.
With export demand—particularly from the Gulf—holding at moderate levels, and regional weather patterns supporting healthy crop prospects for 2025, stakeholders see little upside pressure for now. Unless there are surprises in international demand or unseasonal weather disruptions, prices are expected to remain range-bound. This environment presents both challenges and opportunities for growers, traders, and exporters navigating the months ahead.
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Cardamom whole
green,7.5-8 mm
FOB 18.07 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green 6.0-6.5 mm
99%
FOB 16.30 €/kg
(from IN)
Cardamom whole
green, 8 mm
FOB 24.31 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices: Current Cardamom Market Snapshot
| Type | Origin | Purity/Size | Organic | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Last Update | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom whole | IN | green, 8 mm | No | New Delhi | 24.31 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | IN | green 7.5 mm | No | New Delhi | 23.51 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | IN | green 7-7.2 mm | No | New Delhi | 22.09 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | IN | green 6.5-6.8 mm | No | New Delhi | 21.14 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | IN | green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99% | Yes | New Delhi | 16.30 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| Cardamom whole | IN | green 7.5-8 mm | Yes | New Delhi | 18.07 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| Cardamom powder | IN | – | Yes | New Delhi | 24.85 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Supplies: Increased arrivals in Nepal and India maintain ample market supply.
- Export Demand: Moderate activity from traditional buyers in the Gulf and other regions; no indications of a procurement surge.
- Political Stability: The new government in Nepal provides a positive background, but hasn’t impacted prices yet.
- Speculative Activity: Low interest as range-bound movement discourages speculators.
📊 Fundamentals & Comparison
- Price Level vs. Previous Report: No significant change—market stability continues, with FOB prices in New Delhi aligned to last quoted values. Nepal prices remain at ₹1,480–1,500/kg for premium grades.
- Crop Prospects: Nepal’s crop for 2025 is projected higher year-on-year due to favorable weather and improved farming practices.
- Yield Outlook: Healthy yields confirmed by early reports, restraining any price rally.
- Stock Situation: No shortages; comfortable supply at both origin and trading hubs.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Implications
- Nepal: Rainfall has been timely and adequate, encouraging crop health and supporting higher yields.
- India (Sikkim, Darjeeling): Mild weather with sufficient precipitation; no threats reported for the developing crop.
- Short-Term Risks: No adverse weather events forecasted in key growing areas over the next week, keeping fundamentals strong.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Overview
| Country | 2024 Production (est.) | 2025 Projection | Stock/Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nepal | ~7,000 MT | Higher (exact figures pending) | Adequate |
| India | ~6,500 MT | Stable to slightly higher | Adequate |
| Bhutan | ~900 MT | Steady | Adequate |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Range-bound pricing expected; consider short-term contracts for coverage.
- Exporters advised to monitor Gulf and Southeast Asian demand signals for potential movement after October.
- Growers should maintain quality focus to capture premium as overall market remains supply-driven.
- Buyers can stagger purchases without fear of sharp price escalation; monitor weather for any surprise disruption.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Location/Type | Current (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi, Green 8 mm | 24.31 | 24.20–24.35 | Stable |
| New Delhi, Green 6.0–6.5 mm (Organic) | 16.30 | 16.20–16.40 | Stable |
| Nepal, Premium | ₹1,480–1,500 | ₹1,475–1,500 | Stable |
