Cardamom Market Under Pressure: Subdued Prices Amidst Strong Arrivals and Weak Demand

The global cardamom market is experiencing a notable lack of momentum as the season progresses into October. Despite the historical volatility often associated with this sector, current signals indicate a pronounced market calmness, with prices holding relatively steady across major grades. In India, particularly in the New Delhi market, cardamom prices are unchanged, reflecting tepid trader activity and a cautious stance from stockists.

Key market centers report closing prices for whole green cardamom between €16.30 and €24.27 per kg, while premium-sized and organic varieties remain at the upper end. International demand has failed to pick up meaningfully, leaving the market susceptible to supply-side pressures. The main arrival regions—Sikkim and the Northeast—have seen an increase in fresh supplies, further dampening the prospect of any near-term price recovery.

With global inventories stable and auction prices ranging from $15.00 to $21.20 per kg, most stakeholders appear to be awaiting clearer signals before committing to significant positions. Weather outlooks presently show generally favorable conditions in key growing regions, mitigating additional production risks in the immediate term. As exporters and importers alike monitor these dynamics, the likelihood of price firmness remains low for the coming days.

📈 Prices Overview

Product	Grade/Type	Organic	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Change	Sentiment
Cardamom whole	green, 8 mm	No	New Delhi	24.27	24.27	0.00	Neutral
Cardamom whole	green 7.5 mm	No	New Delhi	23.47	23.47	0.00	Neutral
Cardamom whole	green 7-7.2 mm	No	New Delhi	22.05	22.05	0.00	Neutral
Cardamom whole	green 6.5-6.8 mm	No	New Delhi	21.10	21.10	0.00	Neutral
Cardamom whole	green 6.0-6.5 mm	Yes	New Delhi	16.30	16.30	0.00	Subdued
Cardamom whole	green,7.5-8 mm	Yes	New Delhi	18.06	18.06	0.00	Subdued
Cardamom powder	–	Yes	New Delhi	24.80	24.80	0.00	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals rising: Fresh shipments from Sikkim and India’s Northeast have increased, keeping local markets well-supplied and capping price gains.
• Weak export demand: International buying interest remains lackluster, reflected in both stagnant prices and limited volume at auctions.
• Auction price range: $15.00–$21.20/kg depending on grade and quality, consistently tracked through recent weeks.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Sufficient stocks: The market’s neutral tone is bolstered by adequate inventories held by both traders and producers in India.
• Price fluctuation minimal: Movements of only ~$0.25/kg during the week suggest limited speculative activity.
• Key competitor data: Global production is dominated by India and Guatemala; with no major disruptions reported this month, international supply remains steady.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Sikkim & Eastern India: Mild and seasonally appropriate rainfall forecast for next 5–7 days; no severe weather disruptions anticipated.
• Pest/disease risk: Remains low for the current period, although continued vigilance is advised in case of sudden weather changes.
• Yield impact: The benign outlook supports a scenario of stable to slightly higher yields, further adding to overall supply.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Est. 2024 Production (tons)	Major Export Status	Stock Trend
India	23,000	Yes	High
Guatemala	36,000	Yes	Stable
Indonesia	3,500	No	Rising
Bangladesh	800	No	Stable
Middle East & Others	Small	Importers	Steady demand

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price action is tipped to remain horizontal with no evident catalysts for a rally.
• Stockists should avoid aggressive accumulation; current values are not indicating imminent rebound.
• Exporters should focus on quality grades, which are trading at the upper end of offered ranges.
• Importers are advised to buy hand-to-mouth; inventory build-up is not a priority given steady arrivals.
• Monitor weather for any unusual patterns that could shift fundamentals or prompt speculative moves.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Grade/Type	Forecast Price Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
New Delhi	whole, green 8 mm	24.00–24.40	Stable
New Delhi	whole, green 6.0-6.5 mm	16.20–16.50	Stable to Lower
New Delhi	whole, green 7.5-8 mm (organic)	18.00–18.30	Stable

Note: Little movement is expected without a fresh external trigger.