Cardamom Market Update: Stable Supply Holds Down Prices, Outlook Flat

The large cardamom market continues to exhibit a cautious and somewhat fatigued mood. Despite previous periods of heightened activity, prices have softened over the last month and a half as both domestic and export demand remain subdued. Industry participants report that, while there have been occasional short-lived recoveries in price, a combination of moderate buying interest and steady arrivals from major producing regions is keeping prices range-bound.

The absence of any notable shortage in the market, coupled with buyers purchasing only to meet immediate requirements, has prevented any sustained rallies. Current supply is described as stable, and while some quality variation exists, it has not significantly affected overall availability. Unless there is a notable increase in export demand or an unexpected contraction in supply, market sentiment remains neutral to slightly negative for the near term. The prevailing view among traders and stakeholders is that only a substantial shift in either demand or supply dynamics will break the current inertia and send prices decisively upward. For now, the market’s tone is best described as flat, with little expectation for immediate gains in large cardamom pricing.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Grade/Size	Organic	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Cardamom whole	Green	IN	New Delhi	7.5-8 mm	Yes	18.15	0.00	Stable/Weak
Cardamom whole	Green	IN	New Delhi	6.0-6.5 mm	Yes	16.40	0.00	Stable/Weak
Cardamom whole	Green	IN	New Delhi	7-7.2 mm	No	22.15	0.00	Stable/Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Arrivals from North-Eastern India continue at a steady pace. No significant shortages have been reported, although there is some minor quality variation.
• Demand: Domestic consumption is steady but not robust. Export demand remains selective and sporadic, limited to buyers’ immediate needs.
• Market participants highlight that the cautious approach by buyers is preventing price rallies, keeping the tone soft.

📊 Fundamentals

• Current trend: Overall market prices are under pressure, with little sign of imminent recovery.
• Inventory: Adequate stocks and steady arrivals support a comfortable supply position.
• Speculative activity: Minimal, with traders holding off on bulk purchases.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Weather conditions in major cardamom-producing regions of North-East India remain broadly favorable.
• No significant climatic disruptions reported; as a result, crop arrivals are steady and quality largely maintained.
• Continued normal weather patterns are expected to support adequate supply in the coming weeks.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• India remains the primary exporter, with significant shares from North-Eastern states.
• Demand from traditional importing countries (Middle East, EU) remains cautious.
• Export volumes have not exhibited substantial growth, contributing to the muted price environment.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Prices are likely to remain range-bound in the near term due to balanced supply and cautious demand.
• Only a sharp decrease in arrivals or unexpected export momentum could provide upside potential.
• Market participants should monitor developments in export demand and any weather-related disruptions closely.
• Buyers are advised to purchase on a need-only basis while the market tone is weak.
• Sellers may consider holding back stocks to see if demand picks up later in the quarter.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product/Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
New Delhi	Green 7.5-8 mm, Organic	18.15	18.10 – 18.15
New Delhi	Green 6.0-6.5 mm, Organic	16.40	16.35 – 16.40
New Delhi	Green 7-7.2 mm	22.15	22.10 – 22.20