Cardamom Prices Stabilize: Steady Arrivals, Nepal Imports, and Export Growth Shape the Market

The cardamom market has entered a period of stabilization, following notable volatility driven by supply uncertainties earlier in the season. Over the past weeks, prices for large cardamom (badi elaichi) have largely steadied after prior declines. The key driver behind this consolidation is an increase in market arrivals, which has alleviated fears of a shortfall and sparked a moderate improvement in demand from both domestic buyers and the trading community. Recent shifts in import flows, especially from Nepal—a major external supplier—are subtly influencing price levels in the Indian market.

With improved arrivals, traders now expect price action to remain range-bound, supported by stockist activity and ongoing export demand. This stability offers both producers and buyers a window of predictability as the new crop season develops, with the potential for further demand resilience as exports increase and the weather outlook remains favorable.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Organic	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Market Sentiment
Cardamom whole	IN	green, 8 mm	No	New Delhi	24.20	-0.10	Stable
Cardamom whole	IN	green 7.5-8 mm	Yes	New Delhi	17.95	-0.10	Stable
Cardamom whole	IN	green 6.0-6.5 mm	Yes	New Delhi	16.20	-0.10	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Increased arrivals in domestic markets, resolving earlier supply concerns caused by off-season shortages.
• Demand from major Indian trading centers and stockists has picked up slightly as supplies have stabilized.
• Nepal-origin large cardamom arrivals into India are a key variable: recent imports priced around ₹1,600/kg (down from ₹1,700/kg), signaling improved access and steady supply.
• Steady to moderate export demand: 10,063 tonnes exported in Apr–Dec 2025–26, valued at ₹193.15 crore, up from 9,151 tonnes and ₹145.57 crore in the prior period.

📊 Fundamentals

• Arrivals: Earlier price increases were primarily due to restricted off-season arrivals. Improved seasonal supplies are now dampening the volatility.
• Production regions: Conditions in India’s major growing areas remain stable; however, weather patterns during the current crop development stage are closely watched by traders.
• Imports: India’s reliance on Nepal for large cardamom imports continues, with price shifts at the border quickly reflected in domestic markets.
• Exports: Both export volumes and values have risen significantly year-over-year, indicating robust international interest in Indian cardamom.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Crop development is progressing under relatively stable production conditions in major growing areas (notably Sikkim, West Bengal, and Nepal).
• Weather remains a closely monitored factor: While no major adverse events are reported, traders are vigilant for potential disruptions from unseasonal rainfall during the final stages of pod maturation and harvest.
• Short-term weather forecasts suggest normal to above-average temperatures, which may benefit pod quality and increase available supplies if monsoon timings remain normal.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Biggest global producer and exporter; supplies have grown year-on-year, supporting export ambitions.
• Nepal: Major supplier of large cardamom to India; stable supply flows are currently providing a balancing effect in the Indian market.
• Other regions: Bangladesh and Bhutan remain minor but stable contributors to global supply.
• Importers: Gulf states, South Asia, and select European markets continue to show steady demand.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued range-bound trading on Indian exchanges and key spot markets in the near term.
• Improved supply from both domestic and Nepali sources may cap price rallies, reducing supply-driven volatility.
• Exporters should leverage strong international demand; monitor shipment windows and currency trends for optimal pricing.
• Importers are advised to secure forward contracts to hedge against possible supply disruptions during tail-end of the crop season.
• Weather developments remain a wildcard: Monitor updates for potential supply shocks.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (New Delhi, FOB, Key Grades)

Date	8 mm (conventional)	7.5-8 mm (organic)	6.0-6.5 mm (organic)
Day 1	24.20 EUR/kg	17.95 EUR/kg	16.20 EUR/kg
Day 2	24.20 EUR/kg	17.95 EUR/kg	16.20 EUR/kg
Day 3	24.10–24.20 EUR/kg	17.90–17.95 EUR/kg	16.15–16.20 EUR/kg

Market is expected to remain stable with minimal downside risk, provided arrivals continue as forecast and export demand sustains.