Cardamom Surge: Indian Exports Soar Amid Global Supply Squeeze in 2026

The cardamom market has entered a period of strong optimism and dynamic price action, driven by extraordinary shifts in global supply and demand. As the 2026 export season approaches, India’s small cardamom sector is poised for its most significant surge in years. Exports are projected to reach an extraordinary 14,000 tonnes—nearly twice the historical norm. This bullish sentiment is fundamentally rooted in a severe production shortfall in Guatemala, the world’s other key supplier, where output is estimated to have halved, creating a substantial vacuum in international markets.

Key regions like West Asia and the Middle East are now relying heavily on Indian cardamom, further boosting demand as major festivals approach. What sets Indian cardamom apart this season is not only supply but superior quality, with notably bold grades and higher oil content Commanding premium prices. As weather conditions remain favorable and domestic interest grows ahead of Holi, the next few months present a ‘golden window’ for Indian producers and exporters—unless a sharp reversal occurs in Guatemalan output or global demand wanes. Pricing, supported by robust fundamentals, looks set to remain elevated in this cycle, making 2026 a potentially historic year for Indian cardamom.

📈 Market Prices

Product	Grade	Origin	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Cardamom whole	Green, 7.5-8 mm, organic	IN (New Delhi)	18.15	18.15	2026-02-21	Bullish
Cardamom whole	Green 6.0-6.5 mm, 99%, organic	IN (New Delhi)	16.40	16.40	2026-02-21	Bullish
Cardamom whole	Green 7-7.2 mm	IN (New Delhi)	22.15	22.15	2026-02-21	Bullish

Spot international prices for Indian cardamom are reported at around USD 29–30 per kg, reflecting strong global demand and premium quality.

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Global Supply Crunch: Guatemalan production—traditionally the world’s largest—has dropped by an estimated 50%.
• Indian Exports Surge: Indian shipments are expected to hit ~14,000 tonnes, nearly double the average.
• Export Destinations: Iranian, Saudi, Kuwaiti, and UAE buyers are aggressively booking Indian cardamom, driven by both seasonal and cultural demand (Nowruz, Ramadan).
• Domestic Demand: Expected to firm up as the Holi festival approaches, further tightening supplies.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Quality Premium: This season’s crop features bolder grades (7 mm and 8 mm) with higher oil content and superior post-harvest handling.
• Prices: Supported at high levels; FOB offers in New Delhi range from EUR 16.4 to 24.4 per kg according to size and grade.
• Production Outlook: 2025–26 output for India is pegged at 32,000–35,000 tonnes on favorable weather and improved agricultural practices.
• Arrival Trends: The picking season is winding down, with reduced arrivals anticipated through March–April.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Climate Influence: La Niña conditions are expected to bring beneficial spring showers in late February–March, supporting the next crop cycle’s healthy establishment.
• Risk Factors: Sudden adverse weather during pod setting could tighten supplies, but the near-term outlook remains broadly favorable.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

• India: 2025–26 crop: ~32,000–35,000 tonnes.
  Exports (2026 season): ~14,000 tonnes (historic high).
• Guatemala: Output down by ~50%—main driver of current supply squeeze.
• Importers: Middle Eastern and West Asian countries are primary demand centers as local stocks run low.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Exporters: Lock in contracts promptly—spot interest is high, and prices remain supported by export demand and supply shortages elsewhere.
• Importers: Secure coverage for Q2 and pre-Ramadan requirements as global supply is expected to remain tight into 2026.
• Producers: Continue with strong quality control and post-harvest handling to maintain premium position in international markets.
• Traders: Monitor Guatemalan developments closely; a sudden rebound could alter the upward trend.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location / Exchange	Product / Grade	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Trend	Expected Range
New Delhi (FOB)	Green Cardamom 7.5-8 mm	18.15	Stable to Firm	18.1 – 18.4
New Delhi (FOB)	Green Cardamom 7-7.2 mm	22.15	Firm	22.1 – 22.5
New Delhi (FOB)	Green Cardamom 8 mm	24.4	Stable	24.3 – 24.6

Short-term prices are expected to remain supported by supply tightness and robust festival-driven demand.