China’s Soybean Exports: Stable But Limited – What’s Next for the Beans Market?

The beans market remains largely steady, especially regarding China’s soybean export dynamics. During the recent Chinese New Year period, market activity was subdued with no significant updates reported. The core takeaway is that China’s soybean export scene remains structurally stable but persistently limited in scale. Forecasts for the 2025/26 season expect monthly soybean exports at just 150,000 tons, essentially level with the current year. This represents only a minor fraction of global bean trade, underscoring China’s role as a dominant soybean importer rather than exporter. Exports are mainly directed to nearby Asian markets, including Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, where there is consistent, but not rapidly expanding, demand for Chinese soybeans due to their unique quality and price profiles.

Domestic Chinese bean supply is also on the tighter side, with national storage purchases and auctions progressing smoothly, and on-farm stocks steadily decreasing. Tight supply of premium-quality beans further constrains export potential. At the global level, major production hubs like Brazil and the US continue to enjoy loose supply and strong export competitiveness, leaving Chinese beans at a disadvantage in terms of both price and exportable volume. Overall, the combination of constrained domestic surplus, limited external demand, and intense global competition signals that China’s soybean export ceiling will remain low in the coming period—a fundamental trend market participants cannot ignore.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Name	Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/t)	Prev. Price (EUR/t)	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Kidney beans	dark red	BR	Brasília	1.41	1.42	2026-02-21	Neutral to slightly bearish
Kidney beans	brown eye	BR	Brasília	1.36	1.37	2026-02-21	Neutral
Kidney beans	white, 99%	GB	London	1.34	1.35	2026-02-21	Slightly bearish

• Chinese-origin organic mung beans: 1.60 EUR/t (+0.02 EUR)
• Chinese-origin large white kidney beans: 2.30–2.40 EUR/t (stable)
• Minor decreases for some European beans (e.g., German split: 0.94 EUR/t)

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China’s soybean exports remain at low structural levels (around 150,000 tons/month, stable YoY).
• Export destinations mainly regional: Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia; demand growth is limited.
• Domestically, steady auction and reserve activity, with on-farm reserves declining, tighten quality bean supply.
• Strong global competition from Brazil and the US, both enjoying ample harvests and aggressive export strategies.
• China’s competitive position internationally is weak, with neither price nor scale advantages in soy exports.
• Global supply continues to be described as ‘loose’, especially outside China.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA and Chinese agency reports confirm China’s continued import dominance.
• Chinese domestic prices underpinned by tight premium supply rather than export optimism.
• Minimal speculative activity in Chinese beans, given predictable trends and stable supply-demand.
• International buyers focus on Brazilian/American offers due to scale and lower unit costs.

☁️ Weather / Regional Impact Outlook

• No significant weather disruptions reported during this period for China.
• Brazilian weather has generally favored harvest, further amplifying global bean supply.
• Ongoing mild weather in the US and China likely to favor orderly planting and stock movements near-term.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• China: Export share remains negligible; import requirements dominate national bean balance.
• Brazil/US: Major exporters, with rising inventories and price competitiveness.
• Japan/South Korea/SEA: Stable but niche demand for select Chinese beans.

🚦 Trading Outlook & Strategy Recommendations

• Exporters (China): Prepare for sustained low export volumes and focus on premium markets; monitor tight bean supply to preserve margins.
• Buyers (Asia): Consider securing forward contracts from China if premium quality is critical, but hedge with offers from Brazil/US for price leverage.
• Global Traders: Continue to prioritize Brazil and US for large-scale contracts; watch for possible quality-led price rises in select Chinese bean segments.
• Speculators: Weak directional momentum in Chinese beans—favor range trading or spread strategies if engaging the market.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Product	Origin	Current Price (EUR/t)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/t)	Trend
Kidney beans (dark red)	Brazil	1.41	1.39 – 1.42	Mildly lower/flat
Kidney beans (white, 99%)	UK	1.34	1.33 – 1.35	Flat/slight dip
Mung beans (organic)	China	1.60	1.59 – 1.61	Flat/ST rise