Cinnamon Prices Hold Steady as Heat Builds in India and Vietnam

Cinnamon export prices in India and Vietnam are flat in mid‑April, with no week‑on‑week moves despite building heat in key growing belts. Short‑term price risk is mildly skewed to the upside if hot, drier conditions persist into late April–May.

Cinnamon markets in India (Ceylon and cassia) and Vietnam (cassia) are trading in a narrow range with stable FOB offers. Indian origins are entering the hot pre‑monsoon phase, while central Vietnam is also very warm but not yet under clear moisture stress. With no fresh policy or trade shocks in the last few days and freight conditions broadly steady, buyers face a calm but weather‑sensitive market. Short‑term, a sideways bias is likely, but any confirmation of prolonged heat or rainfall delays could start to lift risk premiums into late Q2.

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📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Indicative mid‑April FOB offers converted to EUR (approx. 1 EUR ≈ 1.08 USD):

Origin	Product	Form	Organic	Latest price (EUR/kg, FOB)	WoW change
India – New Delhi	Ceylon cinnamon	Sticks	Yes	≈ 7.10	Flat
India – New Delhi	Ceylon cinnamon	Powder	Yes	≈ 6.60	Flat
India – New Delhi	Cassia cinnamon	Sticks (organic)	Yes	≈ 6.75	Flat
India – New Delhi	Cassia cinnamon	Powder (organic)	Yes	≈ 4.60	Flat
Vietnam – Hanoi	Cassia cinnamon	Broken (conventional)	No	≈ 2.10	Flat
Vietnam – Hanoi	Cassia cinnamon	Split (conventional)	No	≈ 2.55	Flat
Vietnam – Hanoi	Cassia cinnamon	Cigarette (conventional)	No	≈ 4.75	Flat

Prices in both India and Vietnam have shown no significant change versus the previous two weeks, confirming a sideways market. Indian cinnamon and cassia continue to command a notable premium to Vietnamese cassia, reflecting quality perceptions and organic certification on many Indian lines.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

India (IN) – Key spice belts in Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are entering a very hot pre‑monsoon window, with maximum temperatures around 38–40°C over the next three days and mostly dry to only isolated thundershowers. Kerala’s normal pattern is hot and humid conditions ahead of the southwest monsoon, which typically supports lush spice cultivation when rains arrive, but an extended heat spell without timely pre‑monsoon showers can stress trees and reduce later yields.

Recent cross‑commodity commentary in India points to firm underlying spice demand but limited fresh export orders in the last week, encouraging a wait‑and‑see stance among exporters. Against that backdrop, cinnamon sellers are comfortable holding offers steady as long as weather risk remains only potential rather than realised. Domestic demand for more affordable cassia grades continues to underpin utilization of lower‑priced material.

Vietnam (VN) – Central Vietnam’s core cassia provinces (e.g. Quang Nam and Quang Ngai) face very warm conditions with highs around 31–36°C and mostly hazy sun; only Quang Nam shows some chance of afternoon thunderstorms and light rain in the next two to three days. This suits established trees in the short run and does not yet signal acute moisture stress. Vietnam remains the dominant global cassia exporter, accounting for roughly a third of world cinnamon exports in recent years, but there have been no fresh official data releases on April 2026 export volumes in the last three days.

Trade flows between Vietnam and India are structurally strong, with India a key buyer of Vietnamese cassia, yet short‑term freight and currency conditions appear broadly stable this week. With no new Vietnam‑specific policy or logistics disruptions reported recently, the main near‑term upside risk to prices remains weather‑driven yield concerns rather than immediate supply chain shocks.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Flat price structure: The absence of week‑on‑week moves in both Indian and Vietnamese offers suggests a balanced spot market, with neither sellers nor buyers willing to aggressively shift levels in mid‑April.
• Weather as emerging risk: Above‑normal heat in Indian spice states and sustained warmth in central Vietnam do not yet translate into yield losses, but market participants are increasingly focused on pre‑monsoon and early rainy‑season timings.
• Relative value: Indian organic Ceylon and cassia remain at a substantial premium in EUR/ton terms to conventional Vietnamese cassia, leaving room for some substitution if global demand softens or if Vietnamese export programs accelerate later in Q2.

📆 Short-Term Outlook (3 Days)

Weather outlook (through 22 April 2026)

• India (Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu): Mostly sunny and very hot, highs near 39–40°C, only isolated showers or storms; heat stress risk slowly building for spice crops if pre‑monsoon showers are delayed further.
• Vietnam (Quang Nam, Quang Ngai): Hazy sun, very warm (31–36°C); limited rainfall, with only spotty afternoon storms in Quang Nam, keeping field conditions dry‑to‑firm but still manageable for established cassia stands.

3‑day price direction (EUR, FOB)

• India – New Delhi FOB (Ceylon & cassia): Sideways bias in the next three sessions; current indications are likely to hold within a ±1% band, with only a modest chance of firmer offers if exporters start to price in heat‑related risk.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (cassia, all grades): Sideways; export pipelines and weather do not justify immediate repricing, so flat EUR‑denominated offers are the base case for the coming days.

📌 Trading Recommendations

• Importers / industrial users: For nearby coverage (Q2 shipments), consider using the current flat market to secure at least part of requirements, especially for premium Indian grades, while leaving some volume open to benefit from any short‑term softness if weather normalises.
• Exporters (India & Vietnam): Maintain offer discipline but avoid aggressive price hikes until there is clearer evidence of yield or supply stress; focus on locking in contracts with flexible shipment windows to manage potential late‑season weather volatility.
• Traders / distributors: With prices range‑bound, favour light inventories and quick‑turn positions; monitor regional weather updates closely as a trigger for shifting towards a more bullish stance if persistent heat and delayed rains emerge.

Indicative 3‑day regional outlook (directional, EUR terms)

• India – New Delhi FOB: 0 to +1% (sideways to marginally firm)
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB: 0% (stable)

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