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Cumin Crackles at Record High Price of $3,99 Cumin gains over 30% in a month on lower acreage, weather concerns

Mintec Global
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For jeera (cumin seed), 2023 has started on a sizzling note as the seed spice scaled a new record high topping $3,99 per kg in the futures market on Monday. Cumin futures for delivery in January have gained over 30 percent since December 2 from $3,02. In the spot markets at Unjha, cumin prices have surged 29 percent from $2,99 a month ago to $3,88.

The bullish trend is attributed to a bleak sowing scenario in Gujarat. The Western State, which accounts for over 50 percent of the seed spice, has reported the sowing of Cumin on 2.69 million hectares. This is lower by 35 per cent than the three-year normal sowing of 4.21 million hectares. Gujarat’s sowing data till December 26 show Cumin acreage to be down about six percent YoY. Sowing in Rajasthan, however, has increased and is estimated at 5.79 million hectares as of December 30, Government data showed.

Best 2022 performer

On the NCDEX, Cumin January contracts quoted at $4,00 per kg, up 5.99 per cent from the previous settlement. Cumin emerged the best-performing commodity in 2022, gaining over 80 per cent.

“Prices increased to a record high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand is expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from Gulf and other countries,” said Kedia Stocks and Commodities Research in its spices commentary on Monday.

Reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties ahead of the festive demand may fuel the sentiment further, analysts say. This comes on the back of low carryover stock of about 10 million bags (each of 55 kg).

The far-month contract for April Futures gained 6 per cent intra-day on Monday to touch a high of $4,08 indicating further upside in Cumin towards April.

The trade has estimated India’s Cumin production for 2022-23 to be down by around 33 percent to 2.7 to 3 million tonnes YoY.

Cumin exports during the April-October 2022 period dropped by 18.92 percent to 1,22,015.13 tonnes as compared to 1,50,479.11 tonnes during the same period in 2021, the analyst firm noted. The October 2022 exports dipped by 31.27 percent to around 12,427.86 tonnes, as against 18,081.78 tonnes exported in September.

Most of the Cumin sowing is completed and the fresh crop will start arriving in February but the weather holds the key to a good crop.

Source: The Hindu Business Line

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