Fennel Market Analysis: Prices Under Pressure Amid Ample Supply & Muted Demand

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The global fennel market is navigating a period of mild price correction as recent data indicates a slight downward trend in both whole and processed fennel products. Indian FOB prices for organic whole fennel and powder have dipped marginally, reflecting broader market softness amid robust supply and a lack of speculative buying. While the market fundamentals for fennel remain healthy—thanks to steady demand from food, spice, and pharmaceutical sectors—recent weeks have seen sellers adjusting offers to remain competitive. This is particularly true in New Delhi, where both organic and conventional fennel seeds are trading at lower levels compared to the previous week. Internationally, Brazilian fennel seed prices are stable but remain above Indian offers, underpinning India’s role as the most competitive origin for buyers. Weather conditions in key Indian growing regions are currently favorable, supporting expectations for a normal harvest and further reinforcing the supply outlook. However, buyers remain cautious, with demand growth seen as modest in the short term, and currency fluctuations as well as freight rates continuing to influence trade flows. Given the current balance of supply and demand, the fennel market is likely to remain rangebound in the coming days, although any unexpected weather disruptions could trigger volatility. Traders and processors are advised to monitor monsoon developments and export demand closely for emerging opportunities.

📈 Prices

Product Type Purity Origin Location Organic Delivery Terms Price (USD/kg) Prev. Price (USD/kg) Weekly Change Market Sentiment
Fennel Whole IN New Delhi Yes FOB 2.67 2.70 -1.1% Soft
Fennel Powder IN New Delhi Yes FOB 2.76 2.80 -1.4% Soft
Fennel seeds Grade A 99% IN New Delhi No FOB 1.27 1.29 -1.6% Weak
Fennel seeds Grade A 98% IN New Delhi No FOB 0.98 1.00 -2.0% Weak
Fennel seeds 99% IN New Delhi No FOB 1.07 1.09 -1.8% Soft
Fennel seeds 98% IN New Delhi No FOB 0.98 1.00 -2.0% Weak
Fennel seeds 98% BR Brasília No FOB 1.90 1.90 0.0% Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

  • India: Supplies remain robust, with new crop arrivals supporting ample availability. Exporters hold sufficient stocks, and domestic demand is moderate.
  • Brazil: Prices are stable but at a premium to Indian offers, limiting export competitiveness.
  • Demand: Food and spice industries are steady buyers; pharmaceutical demand is seasonally firm. No speculative buying reported.
  • Competitive Crops: Farmers in India have favored fennel due to stable returns, but increased corn acreage in some regions may limit further fennel expansion.

📊 Fundamentals

  • Stocks: High inventory levels in India, especially in major trading hubs, are weighing on prices.
  • Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative activity; market is led by physical demand.
  • External Factors: Weakness in the Indian rupee and stable freight rates are supporting export competitiveness.
  • Comparison to Previous Report: The last market report highlighted similar price pressure, with the current week showing a continued but modest decline in prices. No major change in demand drivers; supply remains ample.

☁️ Weather Outlook

  • Monsoon onset in India is on schedule, with key fennel-growing regions forecasted to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall over the next week.
  • No major weather threats are expected in the immediate term, supporting healthy crop development and timely harvests.
  • Internationally, Brazilian fennel regions report stable weather, aiding steady output.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country 2024/25 Production (est. tons) 2024/25 Stocks (est. tons) Export Share
India ~480,000 High 70%
China ~70,000 Moderate 10%
Egypt ~35,000 Moderate 7%
Brazil ~25,000 Low 4%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • 📉 Short-term: Prices are likely to remain under mild downward pressure due to ample supply and cautious demand.
  • 📦 For Exporters: Consider locking in sales at current levels to mitigate further downside risk, especially for conventional grades.
  • 🛒 For Buyers: Gradual accumulation is recommended as prices approach technical support; monitor for any sudden weather disruptions.
  • 🌦️ Monitor: Monsoon progress and export inquiries—any weather surprises or sudden demand from the Middle East or Southeast Asia could shift sentiment rapidly.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Product Location Current Price (USD/kg) Forecast Range (USD/kg) Trend
Fennel Whole (Organic) New Delhi 2.67 2.65 – 2.70 Soft/Stable
Fennel Seeds (Grade A, 99%) New Delhi 1.27 1.25 – 1.29 Weak
Fennel Powder (Organic) New Delhi 2.76 2.74 – 2.78 Soft