Georgia’s Dried Fruit Shock Tightens European Apple & Fruit Supply Chains

Georgia’s dried fruit trade data for Q1 2026 point to a sharp squeeze in regional availability: import prices jumped nearly 38% year on year while import volumes fell 20% and exports collapsed by about 80%. This disruption in a key transit hub is tightening supply into Europe and is broadly supportive for dried fruit prices, including dried apple products.

Georgia sits between Central Asian producers and European buyers, and its latest trade figures underline how regional tightness is reshaping flows. Import volumes fell from 315 tonnes in Q1 2025 to 252 tonnes in Q1 2026, yet import value still rose almost 10%, driven purely by higher unit prices. At the same time, exports dropped from 148 tonnes to just 29 tonnes, forcing European buyers—especially in Germany and the Baltics—to seek alternative origins and reinforcing firm price levels for dried fruit categories.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

The average Georgian dried fruit import price rose from about $2.28/kg in Q1 2025 to $3.14/kg in Q1 2026, a 37.7% increase that confirms a structurally tighter market rather than a demand-driven upswing. Import expenditures grew 9.9% year on year despite lower tonnage, highlighting strong cost-push pressure along the supply chain.

Current indications from the European dried fruit complex are consistent with this picture of firmness. Dried apricot prices in Europe remain elevated but slightly softening, while wholesale prices for mainstream dried fruits such as raisins in EU hubs hover in the mid-single‑digit €/kg range, with limited downside expected before the next harvests. Overall, dried apple cubes traded FCA in the Netherlands are holding in the low €4/kg range, showing stability rather than aggressive moves amid broader dried fruit tightness.

Product	Specification	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–Month Trend
Dried apple	Cubes 5–7 mm, CN origin	Dordrecht, NL / FCA	4.42	Sideways to slightly higher
Dried apple	Cubes 8–10 mm, CN origin	Dordrecht, NL / FCA	4.32	Sideways to slightly higher
Dried apple	Cubes 10–12 mm, CN origin	Dordrecht, NL / FCA	4.37	Sideways to slightly higher
Dried apricots	no. 7 sulphured, TR origin	Malatya, TR / FOB	~7.50	Firm at high levels

🌍 Supply & Trade Flows

Uzbekistan remains Georgia’s dominant dried fruit supplier, providing 151 tonnes worth $321,000 in Q1 2026, at an average of about $2.13/kg. Iran followed with 54 tonnes at roughly $3.63/kg, while Tajikistan supplied 20 tonnes at around $5.00/kg, underscoring that the tightest origins are also the most expensive. Premium flows from Turkey (~$12.33/kg) and Germany (~$14.07/kg) point to niche, value‑added product rather than bulk volumes.

On the export side, the collapse is stark: shipments dropped to 29 tonnes worth $128,000 in Q1 2026 from 148 tonnes and $666,000 a year earlier. Germany still absorbed the bulk (23 tonnes), with Latvia and Lithuania taking only small residual volumes. With Georgia’s re‑exports severely reduced, more Central Asian product is likely to move directly into EU markets, bypassing Georgian intermediaries and leaving less flexibility for European buyers reliant on mixed-origin spot cargoes.

📊 Fundamentals & Regional Context

The surge in import unit values into Georgia likely reflects lingering tightness following weather‑affected 2025 harvests in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Central Asian production setbacks have constrained exportable surpluses and supported prices across the dried fruit complex. Meanwhile, recent trade and crop‑monitoring data indicate that Central Asia’s 2026 season is not facing extreme weather anomalies so far, suggesting no immediate relief but also no new large shock to supply. At the same time, Iran‑related geopolitical risks and broader shipping disruptions are keeping risk premia elevated in segments such as raisins, indirectly supporting other dried fruits through substitution effects. 

Georgia’s role as a transit and blending hub is structurally challenged as Uzbek and Tajik exporters deepen direct links to European customers. Similar export declines from other regional players, such as Kyrgyzstan, reinforce the picture of a reconfigured dried fruit trade map, in which traditional intermediaries lose share to origin‑to‑destination flows. For European buyers of dried apple and mixed fruit ingredients, this means a tighter and more origin‑concentrated supply base, with less buffer stock held in Caucasus warehouses.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

Seasonal forecasts for April–June 2026 across Uzbekistan, western Tajikistan and neighbouring Central Asian fruit belts suggest broadly neutral rainfall patterns, with no strong signal for either drought or excessive precipitation in the coming two to three months. Short‑term forecasts in Uzbekistan point to warm conditions with some showers, typical for early May. In Iran’s key fruit regions such as Hamadan, May weather is expected to remain seasonally mild without extreme anomalies indicated so far. This points to a near‑term environment where existing tightness persists but is not immediately aggravated by additional weather shocks.

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Over the next 30–90 days, Georgia’s dried fruit import volumes are likely to remain constrained, with high prices limiting restocking and leaving little surplus for re‑export to Europe. For dried apple and other fruit ingredients, this supports a stable‑to‑firm price bias in EU hubs, especially while Central Asian and Iranian supplies remain tight and logistics risks elevated. A more meaningful loosening would require a clearly better‑than‑average 2026 harvest in the main producing regions.

• European buyers: Secure coverage for core dried apple and mixed fruit needs at current levels for Q2–Q3; rely on staggered purchases rather than waiting for significant price corrections that are unlikely before new‑crop clarity.
• Importers in Georgia and the Caucasus: Prioritise higher‑margin premium and value‑added lines, as bulk re‑export volumes are structurally pressured by direct Central Asian–EU trade.
• Producers/exporters in Central Asia: Continue to deepen direct contracts with EU clients, leveraging Georgia’s weakened transit role while monitoring weather and logistical developments ahead of the 2026 harvest.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Dried apple cubes, FCA NL (EU hubs): Stable to slightly firmer in the €4.30–€4.45/kg range amid tightness but limited spot demand.
• Dried apricots, FOB Turkey: Stable at elevated levels around the mid‑€7/kg to low‑€8/kg band, with modest downside risk near term.
• Mixed Central Asian dried fruits into EU (CIF main ports): Firm, with offers expected to hold or edge higher in the very short term due to constrained Caucasus re‑exports.