Global wheat demand may grow by 11% over the next decade. This was noted in the forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031.
This will be influenced by the following factors:
- world population growth by 800 million (average annual growth of 0.9%);
- use of wheat as animal feed, especially in Asia, where meat consumption is growing;
- demand for biofuels directly as a source of ethanol and indirectly as other food sources are diverted to biofuel production.
Most of the demand will come from developing countries in Asia. Most of them will need more imports from large grain producers.
India, China, Pakistan and Egypt will account for about half of the growth in global consumption. Significant demand growth is also expected in Africa (Nigeria +29%, Ethiopia +22%) and ASEAN (Vietnam +21%, Indonesia +17%, Philippines +19%).
Ongoing conflict and rising input costs
Long-term forecasts provide useful information, but researchers face numerous problems. For example, analysts noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine shows how unexpected events can cause significant disruptions to production and trade. The potential for ongoing conflicts and rising input costs, especially for fertilizers, could affect production in the short term.
It should be reminded that rye bread, as well as pearl barley and barley groats, may become a deficit in Ukraine for the year.
Bread prices rose by %20 in EU
Bread prices in the European Union rose by almost 20% in August as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a major exporter of grain and fertilizers, continued to undermine world markets and accelerate overall inflation.
Even with the occupation of the territory and mined fields, Ukraine will be able to provide grain to the domestic market and allocate a share for export. This year, Ukrainian farmers can harvest about 66.5 million tons of grains and oilseeds from the area of about 18.8 million hectares.