Strategie Grains Raises EU Wheat Production Forecast - USDA Raised the Forecast of Global Wheat Production by 10 Million Tons - IGC Lowered the Forecast of Global Wheat Production

IGC Lowered the Forecast of Global Wheat Production

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In the September report, International Grains Council – IGC analysts lowered the forecast of global wheat production in 2023/24 MY to 783.5 mln tonnes compared to 784.1 mln tonnes in the previous forecast, which is also 21.2 mln tonnes lower than in 2022/23 MY, reports Apkinform.

Harvest

In particular, analysts made downward adjustments to the grain harvest;

  • Argentina – to 16.5 (17.5; 12.6) million tonnes,
  • Australia – to 25.4 (27.9; 39.7) million tonnes,
  • Canada – to 29.8 (31.5; 34.3) million tonnes,
  • EU – to 132.5 (133.3; 133.8) million tonnes.

At the same time, in the Black Sea region, analysts expect wheat production to increase, namely, the forecast was raised for Russia to 87.4 (84.4, 95.4) million tonnes and Ukraine to 25.9 (24.5, 26.3) million tonnes.

Exports

Experts expect global exports in the current season to decline to 195.9 (197.2; 207.8) million tonnes due to downward adjustments made for such countries as

  • Argentina – to 11.5 (12.4; 4.5) million tonnes,
  • Australia – to 19 (21; 31.5) million tonnes,
  • Canada – to 22.7 (24.2; 25.2) million tonnes.

However, the forecast for Russia was raised to 48.6 (46.6; 47.8) million tonnes.

Ending Stocks

Also, the forecast for global ending stocks in 2023/24 MY was raised to 262.6 (260.9; 282.5) million tonnes. Thus, the upward adjustments were made for

  • Argentina – to 2.3 (2.2; 3.3) million tonnes,
  • Australia – to 2.2 (1.8; 3.2) million tonnes,
  • Canada – to 3.2 (2.8; 3.8) million tonnes,
  • Kazakhstan – to 2 (1.8; 2.6) million tonnes,
  • Russia – to 10.7 (10.4; 15.3) million tonnes,
  • Ukraine – to 4.3 (2.8; 2.5) million tonnes.

At the same time, analysts lowered the forecast of grain stocks in China to 138.4 (137.9; 140.3) million tonnes and in the EU to 13.2 (13.8; 19) million tonnes.

Import/Export Statistics

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