India: Cumin Sticks to Inflation

Last week the cumin market remained strong. As per the market experts, there won’t be much downward trend for the spice in the coming days since the overall production of the crop is less than expected.

Current Scenario

• Most of the spot markets in Gujarat were closed for the holiday in March-end, which helped move the price up.
• There is a constant increase in the arrival of the spice in both Rajasthan and Gujarat spot markets.
• The quality of the crop arriving in the market is better than before; hence the product is getting sold.
• Even in Unjha, the benchmark spot market for Cumin, the arrival is expected to increase, but it won’t impact the price.
• The recent arrival of Cumin is reported to be 50 thousand bags.
• The improved price of Cumin is due to the late harvesting of the spice in Gujarat by 20 to 25 days. Also, the last year’s low price for Cumin resulted in farmers opting for sowing other crops than Cumin.
• The current sowing is 307,100 hectares compared to last year’s 466,200 hectares.
• The appreciative mode for the commodity is expected to continue even in April. This is because the harvesting started at the end of February.
• There is, however, a bit of a slump in the export demand. It is primarily due to the hike in the freight prices, which are now five-time higher than the last year.
• So, far in the export market, India leads the way for Cumin along with Turkey and Syria, but now Afghanistan is also entering the international market.
• However, it remains to be seen how they fare against India because Indian cumin quality has been better than Turkish and Syrian produce. These two countries together produce 34 thousand tons of Cumin.

Prediction  

As per the market experts, there can be a bullish mode for Cumin in the market temporarily. However, in the long run, the price of Cumin will be determined by the export demand.

Price Trend

Since the mid of February, cumin prices have been moving up steadily for all its varieties. The same trend was witnessed across the entire month of March.

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