Indian Cashew Kernels Ease as Harvest Peaks, but Freight Risks Limit Downside

Indian cashew kernel prices are slightly softer this week as peak harvest supplies keep domestic and export offers competitive, while global demand remains steady and elevated freight from Africa limits deeper corrections. The near‑term (3‑day) bias is for broadly stable EUR‑denominated prices in India, with only marginal grade‑specific moves expected.

Physical trading is concentrated on prompt and May–June nearby positions, with buyers in Europe and the Middle East taking advantage of India’s seasonal low price window before off‑season tightening from May. Ample raw cashew nut (RCN) arrivals in Indian coastal states and robust kernel output in Vietnam and West Africa underpin comfortable global supply, but shipping bottlenecks and higher freight for African RCN continue to provide a floor to kernel prices, especially for standard export grades.

📈 Prices & Spreads (all values in EUR/kg)

Origin	Location / Term	Grade	Current Price	WoW Change
India	New Delhi, FCA	W320	≈ 7.35 EUR	+5–6% vs early April
India	New Delhi, FOB	W320 (conv. from offers)	≈ 6.35–6.70 EUR	Slightly softer, within band
Vietnam	Hanoi, FOB	WW320	≈ 6.35 EUR	Flat
EU (NL)	Dordrecht, FCA	WW320	≈ 4.60 EUR	-1% WoW

Note: USD market indications converted at ≈1.07 USD/EUR for comparability. Indian export offers around 4.70–5.10 USD/kg translate to roughly 4.40–4.80 EUR/kg depending on grade and terms.  

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

India: Peak harvest keeps supply ample

• India is at the tail end of its main harvest in April, a period that historically corresponds to the lowest bulk kernel prices before off‑season tightening from May.  
• Recent market reports point to comfortable RCN arrivals from domestic orchards and continued inflows from West Africa, sustaining high plant utilization in major processing hubs in Kerala, Karnataka and Goa.  
• APEDA and industry outlooks for 2025/26 foresee a sizeable Indian crop (around 725,000 t RCN), reinforcing a broadly well‑supplied balance sheet, although detailed in‑season revisions are still pending.  

Vietnam & West Africa: Freight costs add a price floor

• Vietnam, the largest kernel exporter, shipped close to 800,000 t of kernels in 2025, with China and the US as top buyers; processing in early 2026 remains robust.  
• However, exporters report higher freight from West African origins and some shortfalls in early West African yields, which support global kernel prices despite India’s harvest pressure.  
• Expanded Western African RCN output (Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Benin, Guinea‑Bissau) for 2025/26 still points to strong medium‑term supply capacity, but logistics and finance constraints slow the flow to Asian processors.  

Demand: Steady in EU and North America

• EU snack and ingredient demand remains solid; Vietnam’s agri‑trade dashboard continues to highlight the EU as a key cashew destination with ongoing import growth through late 2025, providing a firm demand base into 2026.  
• Trade data and exporter commentary confirm that the US stays among the top kernel importers globally, particularly for roasted and value‑added products.  
• Discretionary demand risk is limited in the very short term; consumers tend to down‑trade by shifting from premium to standard grades rather than exiting the category, supporting W320/W240 flows.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook (India focus)

• Key Indian cashew belts in Kerala, Karnataka and Goa are currently in their dry, late‑harvest phase; no significant adverse weather anomalies have been reported over the last few days that would materially affect the 2025/26 crop outcome.  
• Short‑range forecasts for coastal South‑West India show mostly seasonal pre‑monsoon heat with isolated thunderstorms, which may affect on‑farm drying logistics but are unlikely to change already‑set yield potential.
• With the bulk of the crop already harvested, weather is now more relevant for post‑harvest handling and quality than for yield, implying limited weather‑driven price risk over the next few weeks.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Balance

• Global RCN production is projected to increase from about 5.37 million t in 2024/25 to over 6.38 million t in 2025/26, led by strong growth in West Africa and India.  
• India’s expanding crop and competitive kernel offers (roughly 4.70–5.10 USD/kg FOB, or 4.40–4.80 EUR/kg) place pressure on higher‑cost origins but are partially offset by logistics and finance costs.  
• Stock levels at importing hubs in Europe appear adequate, with FCA prices in the Netherlands trading at a discount to Asian FOBs, indicating comfortable downstream inventories.

📆 3‑Day Price Outlook (Region: IN)

• India, New Delhi FCA W320: Sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms over the next three days. Near‑term range expected around 7.25–7.45 EUR/kg as harvest pressure meets solid export buying.
• India, New Delhi FCA W240/W450: Narrow, grade‑specific adjustments only. W240 likely to hold a modest premium of 0.40–0.60 EUR/kg over W320; W450 to remain 0.90–1.20 EUR/kg below W320, with limited volatility.
• Broken grades (LWP, SWP) FCA India: Stable; strong demand from confectionery and bakery limits downside, keeping values broadly flat in the very short term.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers (EU/Middle East): Use the current Indian harvest window and soft INR‑adjusted offers to cover nearby Q2–Q3 kernel needs, focusing on standard W320/W240 where downside is limited by freight and African RCN costs.
• Indian Processors: Avoid aggressive discounting of high‑quality kernels; with global supply fundamentally ample but logistics tight, a strategy of steady offers and selective forward sales into Q3 appears preferable to chasing volume.
• End‑users & roasters: Consider layering in coverage for standard grades now while basis differentials to EU FCA remain attractive; keep some flexibility for potential quality‑driven spreads later in the off‑season.