Indian Lentils Extend Rally as Tight Rabi Supply Meets Firm Import Floor

Lentil prices are grinding higher in India for a third straight session, supported by a smaller rabi crop, slow arrivals and a firm import cost floor, while global export offers remain broadly steady in EUR terms.

Across Indian wholesale and port markets, masoor dal is edging up from recent lows but still trades below the MSP, giving processors cost comfort even as a structural supply deficit from this year’s rabi harvest underpins a mildly bullish tone into early May.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Trend

Domestic lentils in Delhi have firmed to about $71.2–71.4 per quintal, with Katni (Madhya Pradesh) near $70.1 per quintal, marking a third consecutive daily gain. Imported Canadian lentils are assessed around $65.6–65.8 per quintal in Delhi, while Australian lots trade slightly lower at roughly $64.8–65.3 per quintal. At Mundra and Hazira ports, Canadian lentils are quoted near $63.4–63.7 per quintal, confirming a synchronized, modest uptrend across key import gateways.

Despite this recovery, domestic producing markets remain below the Indian MSP of $74.6 per quintal, indicating that the current rally is still in its early phase rather than late-cycle overheating. European buyers exposed to Indian-origin lentils should note that Indian price benchmarks are now increasingly anchored by import parity from Canada and Australia rather than by MSP alone, with global offers holding broadly steady in EUR terms over the past week.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

Production estimates from key rabi states Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are coming in below expectations, and new crop arrivals at wholesale markets are underperforming seasonal norms. This points to a weaker-than-forecast harvest, effectively tightening India’s domestic balance just as seasonal demand from Bihar, Bengal and Assam is set to support steady consumption into the summer months.

On the demand side, dal mills are buying on a hand-to-mouth basis rather than building strategic inventories, which is tempering the pace of price gains for now. However, the combination of structurally lower rabi output and steady downstream demand suggests that any additional tightening in arrivals or import flows could quickly translate into stronger price appreciation, especially if processors are forced to rebuild stocks later in Q2.

📊 Global Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Canada remains the key reference origin for the global lentil complex, with recent analysis pointing to lingering pressure from ample carryover but an expected 6% decline in area for 2026/27, implying only limited room for further downside in medium-term export prices. Chinese lentil exports, meanwhile, are experiencing a mild recovery, with FOB prices for key types reported as broadly stable in recent days, supporting a sideways global price environment in EUR terms.

For India, Canadian and Australian import pricing at ports such as Mundra and Hazira now effectively defines the upper bound of domestic values, as traders are reluctant to pay significantly above landed costs. Recent commentary highlights that tighter Indian supply is offsetting broader softness in some other pulse segments, keeping lentils relatively firm compared with substitutes despite the global backdrop of generally adequate supplies in major origins.

🌦 Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

In India, IMD forecasts continued heatwave conditions over Uttar Pradesh and adjoining central/east India for the next several days, reinforcing the view that the rabi lentil harvest outcome is largely set, with limited scope for late-season weather to materially improve yields. Looking ahead to kharif and the 2026 monsoon, early-season guidance suggests near-normal rainfall, but this will matter more for competing pulses than for the current lentil balance.

In Canada, the near-term outlook for the Prairies points to a sequence of cool, unsettled systems with snow and rain in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta, conditions that may briefly disrupt early fieldwork but could help rebuild soil moisture after earlier dryness in some zones. At this stage, no clear weather-driven production shock is visible for the 2026 lentil sowing campaign, keeping global supply risks moderate rather than acute.

📉 Market Risks & Price Implications

• Upside risk: A more pronounced shortfall in rabi output or a sharper slowdown in arrivals could force dal mills into more aggressive replenishment, pushing Indian prices closer to MSP and import parity levels.
• Downside risk: If Canadian and Australian export offers soften due to competitive pressure or currency moves, import parity could cap Indian domestic prices and slow the current rally.
• Logistical risk: Any disruption at Indian ports or in container availability could temporarily widen domestic-import spreads, particularly for inland consuming regions.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers/European buyers: Consider covering near-term needs selectively while Indian prices are still below MSP and global offers remain stable; avoid overbuying given the absence of a clear global production shock.
• Indian processors: Maintain necessity-based procurement but plan for gradual stock rebuilding before the structural rabi deficit becomes fully priced in through May.
• Producers/exporters in Canada & Australia: With India’s structural deficit providing a demand anchor, focus on competitive, EUR-linked offers and logistics reliability rather than chasing higher outright prices in the very near term.

📍 3-Day Price Indication (Directional, in EUR)

Market / Product	Current Level (approx. EUR)	3-Day Bias
India, Delhi domestic lentils (masoor)	≈ 71.3 USD/qtl ≈ 66–67 EUR/qtl (FX est.)	Mildly firmer
India, imported Canadian lentils, ports	≈ 63.5–63.7 USD/qtl ≈ 59–60 EUR/qtl (FX est.)	Stable to slightly firmer
FOB Canada, red & green lentils	Recent offers broadly steady in EUR/t	Mostly sideways