Indian sesame softens as record sowing meets rising Chinese stocks

Indian sesame prices are easing as record summer sowing collides with rising Chinese port inventories, creating a short-term buyer’s market but also laying the groundwork for a more balanced – and potentially firmer – global market later in 2026. European buyers currently benefit from both softer Indian offers and a stronger euro against the dollar.

Sesame markets in India’s key producing and processing hubs are under broad but orderly pressure. Larger daily arrivals in Andhra Pradesh, record summer acreage in Gujarat and a recent build-up of Chinese port stocks have weakened near-term sentiment, especially for black sesame. At the same time, Brazil’s mixed production signals and Pakistan’s exportable surplus underline that global supply is adequate but not limitless. For European food processors, tahini makers and bakery buyers, the current environment offers attractive short-term pricing with moderate forward risk rather than a structural glut.

📈 Prices & Short-Term Trend

Indian wholesale sesame prices softened across most grades in the week to 21 April. At Narasaraopet in Andhra Pradesh, red sesame first-grade new crop slipped to about €0.98–€1.02/kg (formerly roughly €1.01–€1.04/kg), a decline of around 2.65% week-on-week. In Mumbai, premium 99.98% purity sesame eased to roughly €1.22–€1.24/kg, while 99/1/1-grade fell more sharply to near €1.01/kg.

Export-oriented quotes show a similar tone. White sesame export grade at Badvel corrected by about 2.6% to around €1.03/kg, although local red sesame there gained modestly to roughly €1.36/kg, illustrating firm demand for specific qualities. Hulled sesame in Kanpur, a key processing hub, was fractionally softer, indicating that the weakness is broad but not yet disorderly.

European reference offers mirror this gentle softening. Hulled sesame ex-India (EU-grade, 99.95–99.98% purity, FOB New Delhi) is mostly indicated around €1.23–€1.26/kg, down a few euros per tonne from mid-April. Natural sesame 99.1–99.95% purity from India is seen near €1.00–€1.19/kg FCA/FOB, with regular black sesame under the heaviest pressure after recent declines equivalent to roughly €0.09–€0.18/kg.

Product	Origin / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)
Sesame seeds, hulled 99.95%	India, FOB New Delhi	≈ 1.23–1.26
Sesame seeds, natural 99.1–99.95%	India, FOB/FCA New Delhi	≈ 1.00–1.19
Black sesame, regular/super Z	India, FCA New Delhi	≈ 1.20–2.00
Sesame seeds, hulled 99.95%	Chad → Berlin, FCA	≈ 1.66

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

India is at the centre of current weakness. Gujarat, the country’s largest sesame-producing state, has already reached about 140,000 ha under summer sesame as of 20 April 2026, up nearly 15% year-on-year. National summer acreage, at roughly 271,000 ha in early April, remains below its seasonal norm, implying that sowing is mid-progress and further expansion is likely.

In Andhra Pradesh’s Kadapa–Rajampet–Badvel–Narasaraopet corridor, daily arrivals around 4,000 bags are maintaining steady pressure on spot markets. Traders in black sesame in particular expect further downside of roughly €0.09–€0.18/kg in the near term as more crop moves into the pipeline. For white and hulled grades, the downside appears more limited but still biased lower in the immediate weeks.

On the demand side, China – the world’s dominant sesame importer – is acting as a brake rather than a fresh engine of support. Qingdao Port stocks increased by about 20,000 tonnes week-on-week to approximately 304,000 tonnes in mid-April, a level that is high on a short-term basis even if still below last year’s standard-warehouse peak. At the same time, Chinese crushing margins fell by around 5.3% as oil and meal values softened while seed prices stayed firm, tempering crushers’ appetite for aggressive new purchases.

📊 Global Fundamentals & Trade Flows

The broader global balance is comfortable but not overwhelmingly bearish. Brazil’s official 2025/26 sesame production estimate stands near 401,000 tonnes, broadly flat on the year, but private industry voices warn that actual effective planted area could shrink by 30–45% as farmers switch back to corn and cotton after weaker farm-gate prices. If confirmed, this would tighten export availability later in the year despite today’s soft tone.

Pakistan contributes additional flexibility with an estimated 60,000–70,000 tonnes of inventory, including hybrid machine-cleaned sesame currently offered around €960–€980/tonne equivalent for Qingdao delivery. Ethiopian first-grade seeds at Huangdao Port are quoted broadly steady in local-currency terms, underscoring that the present softness is more about India and Chinese margins than a collapse in African values.

For European buyers, trade data underline India’s continuing importance. In early 2026, India remained the largest supplier to the US by volume, while the European Union imported around 14,800 tonnes of sesame in January alone at an average price close to €1,210/tonne. Germany leads EU imports by value, and Greece by volume, reflecting strong downstream demand from tahini and bakery industries.

Currency is a quiet but supportive factor. The euro’s roughly 2.1% appreciation against the US dollar in the week to 20 April (to about 1.18 USD/EUR) marginally improves landed costs for European buyers purchasing dollar-denominated Indian or African sesame, adding an extra layer of price comfort on top of softer origin markets.

🌦 Weather & Planting Outlook

Favourable weather has been a key driver of India’s record summer sowing intentions, especially in Gujarat, where conditions have so far encouraged farmers to expand area after strong historical price realisations. Normal early-season moisture and temperature patterns support expectations for a supply-heavy mid-year period, assuming no major weather shock.

Looking ahead, the main weather risk for the next one to two months concerns any sudden heat stress or erratic pre-monsoon rains that could dent yield potential in late-sown fields. For now, there is no clear signal of a weather-driven production shortfall in India, meaning price risk in the next few weeks leans more to the downside than to weather-led spikes.

📆 2–4 Week Market Outlook

Over the next two to four weeks, Indian sesame prices are expected to stay under moderate pressure as arrivals continue to build in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. With record sowing still unfolding and Chinese crushers contending with narrower margins, the foundation for a sharp rally in the near term is weak.

However, the medium-term balance is more nuanced. If Brazil’s effective planted area indeed contracts substantially and Pakistan’s stocks are drawn down by mid-year, the global export surplus could narrow into the second half of 2026. In that scenario, today’s price softness would likely mark a floor rather than the start of a prolonged downturn, especially for higher-quality white and hulled EU-grade material.

🧭 Trading Recommendations

• European buyers (short-covering): Use the current soft pricing to extend coverage modestly into Q3 2026, focusing on white and hulled EU-grade sesame where discounts are available and quality is assured.
• Industrial users (tahini, bakery): Consider layering forward purchases rather than waiting for further declines, as downside in prime grades appears limited by potential Brazilian supply risks later in the year.
• Traders in black sesame: Exercise patience on large purchases; market expectations of additional €0.09–€0.18/kg downside suggest better entry points may emerge in the short term.
• Risk management: Prioritise suppliers with strong aflatoxin and phytosanitary compliance, as tightening food-safety scrutiny in the EU can offset gains from headline price softness.

📉 3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• FOB India (white & hulled sesame): Slightly weaker to sideways; sellers remain flexible while arrivals stay strong and Chinese demand is cautious.
• FOB Egypt & Pakistan (natural sesame): Largely stable; prices expected to track currency moves and Chinese buying interest rather than local shocks.
• FCA Europe (imported hulled, e.g. Berlin): Sideways with a mild soft bias as origin offers remain under pressure and the stronger euro cushions landed costs.