Reading the Groundnut Leaves – TNAU’s Insightful Analysis
Under the TN-IAM Project, the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, predicts a buoyancy in groundnut prices. The forecast, anchored in a meticulous analysis of the last 16 years, showcases lower acreage and diminishing arrivals, potentially steering groundnut prices to new heights.
Groundnut Prices Are on the Rise
Intricately studying historical prices at the Tindivanam Regulated Market, the price forecasting team reveals a farmgate price projection of $0,96 – 1,02 or €0,89 – 0,94 per kg during the harvest. However, akin to a weather vane, these prices may sway based on market arrivals and the caprices of the monsoon.
As the Crop Forecast Coordination Centre estimates, the groundnut is shifting. A decrease in acreage from 4.553 million hectares in 2022-23 to 4.391 million hectares in 2023-24 for the Kharif crop paints a picture of a dynamic market influenced by climatic nuances.
Global Outlook For Groundnut
On a global scale, India holds a significant position in groundnut production, securing the second spot after China. Groundnut is a crucial oilseed crop, contributing substantially to India’s agriculture. The crop’s international footprint includes critical players like Nigeria, the USA, Sudan, and Senegal.
Exporters eyeing the groundnut market can glean valuable insights from these projections. As the scale tips towards potential price hikes, strategic decisions become paramount. With current arrivals predominantly from Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, exporters must anticipate the market’s ebb and flow.
The TNAU’s Price Forecasting Scheme casts a spotlight on potential market shifts. The buoyancy predicted, anchored in meticulous historical analysis, signals a possible upswing. The farmgate price projection during harvest adds clarity. However, like a weather vane, these prices may sway with market arrivals and the caprices of the monsoon. As a global player, India’s groundnut dynamics affect the broader market. With arrivals from Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, exporters must be agile, anticipating the market’s ebb and flow for strategic decision-making.