Market Continues to Wait for Increase in Demand

Mintec Global
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About the commodities market, there were hardly any changes in the past trading week. The market leader has not yet published its purchase bid, and from Europe, there are still only a few inquiries with substantial buying interest. Therefore, last week’s level has remained more or less the same. However, certain tendencies are now slowly gaining strength.

On the one hand, the rush at the TMO is increasing. The latter will probably increase the number of purchasing points in the coming weeks to process the volume of registrations more quickly. Also, more and more farmers are storing a large portion of the harvest in their homes, hoping for higher prices. Since the farmers have to pay the harvesters and remove the leaves from the nuts, a small amount comes into the market, which for the sake of speed is sold at market prices of 45 TRY/kg in the Eastern Black Sea region and 46 TRY/kg in the Western Black Sea region. Therefore, there is still quite an attractive supply in the market. However, what is also increasing are the differences in offers. Especially for processed goods, it is currently again very worthwhile to compare.

For the coming week, crackers, in particular, are hoping that the market leader will call a price above 95 TRY/kg for natural 11-13 mm because currently, no cost-covering costs can be achieved with approx. 91 TRY/kg on the free market. Therefore, the mood at this value-added level is not the best.

In addition to the commodity market, the foreign exchange market has seen some movement again this week. On the one hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve has ensured a further appreciation of the U.S. dollar with a significant interest rate step. Contrary to the trend, the Turkish  National Bank on Thursday further lowered the key interest rate from 13 to 12 per cent, but in parallel with the sale of foreign exchange (U.S. dollar) directly counteracted a possible decline. In sum, we now see a weaker euro, even against the Turkish lira, which should probably lead to some corrections in export price lists next week.

For the coming weeks, we expect some revival in the market, but the market is likely to remain characterised by restraint and short-term oriented trades.

  • Commodities market (still) stable.
  • Demand remains subdued, and sellers’ price expectations cannot usually be realized.
  • Farmers are increasingly holding back commodities in order to sell them later at higher prices.
    The TMO is considering an expansion of buying points in order to be able to purchase larger quantities in a shorter period of time.
  • The market leader’s buying bid for natural kernels is expected next week.
  • Decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, as well as the National Bank of Turkey lead to a stronger Turkish lira against the euro.
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