India
Gujarat peanut acreage declined by 8%, and Rajasthan managed 100% of the previous year.
Gujarat’s new crop is ready for harvest, and early sown regions (Halvad) started to arrive. Crop arrivals to increase by mid-September. Bold & Java (Spanish) to come by mid-October. Although acreage declined, there is optimism about yield.
Crops from the Karnataka (South) will also arrive in October, mostly Java (Spanish), although acreage declined by 40%.
Local demand has become the fulcrum of the Indian peanut landscape; in addition, the market is entering an inflation nary festive & marriage season from September until mid-January. Nafed stock is about 50,000 tons of peanut shells.
USA
The overall crop quality is good, and the weather needs to be favorable until harvest to get better yields. The final estimate of the acreage is -8% and yield to decline by 8-10% compared to last year. However, this is only an early estimate; the final results may depend on the weather condition.
In the previous edition, we shared the assessment that carry-over stock would be 5-7% but it is likely to be between 4 5%
Exports to Mexico and Canada continue to be leading importers of US peanuts, but on a declining trend in the stocks and processing of peanut butter, snacks and edible usage.
Argentina
Although the overall crop production has reduced by 11% it is better than pre-harvest estimates. The big counts are scarce, the count between 40/50 and 50/60 is more. The carry-over stock of the previous crop is 150% higher than last year’s levels amid weak demand for exports.
The effects of Europe’s heat wave and the impact on demand could mean bad news for Argentina. The EU warehouse has significant stocks, and the inflow is relatively higher. Container freight charges continue to be volatile, eating up shippers’ margins. Peanut prices are expected to be stable low in this crop year.
Currency depreciation and inflation could affect the producers and shippers until the next crop.
Brazil
Shippers cleared their export commitments and started to focus on local markets. As a result, farm stock prices rose significantly. In addition, the currency strengthened against the USS, adding upward press upon the costs.
Crude peanut oil prices are currently higher amid large volume shipments to China. Oil exports rose by 67% compared to March July y-o-y. From March to July 22, exported volume was 57 k Tons. Kernel exports are expected to catch up to the levels of 2021 amid Russian imports through various channels.
China
The market moved sideways with bearish sentiments. Crushers are performing the previously contracted deals. The trade via Haiphong has simmered drastically. The cold room stocks are plenty and varied, but they will not come out until a clear status of the next crop emerges. Many anticipate Chinese demand to rise this year, but China usually surprises the market with its decisions. Freight stabilized, and export business took place reluctantly.
Africa Sudan
Favorable climate conditions have prevailed in the peanut-growing region so far. As a result, Sudan could have a good crop this year. Based on local farmer’s suppliers’ input, the production level will be almost the same as last year @2.9 M tons. The carry-over stocks are minimal, with the current local price at $0.85/kg.
Nigeria The domestic demand for peanuts is intensive amid inflationary pressures. Over 80% of groundnuts gets crushed by domestic factories in the past two years. As a result, a rise of around 40% in peanut oil prices has been witnessed since last year, ie. 15$ to 25$ for 1 LTR packaging on the retail markets. Senegal Production volume is expected to be the same despite a volatile production volume in the past two years. Based on the MSP, the export volume is likely higher this year than the previous crop year.
Source: agrocrops
The following reports may be of interest to you:
Related posts:
Lower Crop & Higher Demand Markets Would Keep Groundnut Prices High Less acreage, leaf blight disease, and climatic uncertainty are set to impact the groundnut crop 
Peanut Global Market in a Nutshell 
Argentina: Due to Russia-Ukraine War Huge Peanut Stock Will Remain Unsold Argentina exports 40 thousand tons of groundnut seeds every year to Russia 
Peanut Prices Remain Steady in India 
31% less Peanut Production in Andhra Pradesh – India why peanut market is silent and stable? 
Groundnut procurement begins in India Purchases will happen through 155 centres across the State 
India: Peanuts Price Rise Continues 
Peanut oil export to china break the downturn