Rapeseed Market Squeeze: Exports Plunge, Prices Rise Amid Crushing Slowdown

The rapeseed market is navigating turbulent waters as a pronounced contraction in India’s export volumes and a parallel firming of prices reveal a market under acute supply-side stress. According to the latest figures, Indian oilmeal exports—including rapeseed meal—dropped sharply by over 40% in January year-on-year, with rapeseed meal alone falling nearly 50%. This dramatic export shortfall is rooted in a recent slowdown in domestic crushing activity, restricting rapeseed meal supply just as global feed markets face heightened competition and evolving demand.

While pricing for Indian rapeseed meal remains below EU-origin alternatives, bolstering relative competitiveness, ongoing raw material tightness and the lag before new crop arrivals pose uncertainties for both exporters and feed buyers. The short-term outlook hinges on the balance between anticipated fresh crop supplies in the coming weeks and the intensity of global demand—particularly as recent policy support schemes and shrinking stocks add further complexity. This foundational shift creates both risks and opportunities across the rapeseed complex, particularly for value chain actors sensitive to price spreads, export windows, and input availability.

📈 Market Prices

Origin	Location	Delivery	Closing Price	Prev. Price	Date	Sentiment
Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	€0.61/kg	€0.60/kg	2026-02-13	Firm
Ukraine	Kyiv	FCA	€0.59/kg	€0.58/kg	2026-02-13	Firm
France	Paris	FOB	€0.55/kg	€0.55/kg	2026-02-04	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India’s rapeseed meal exports plunged to 64,782 tonnes in January 2026 (from 131,000 tonnes a year ago), nearly halving Y/Y.
• Aggregate oilmeal shipments for Jan 2026 fell 42.5% Y/Y; April–Jan exports were down 10% Y/Y.
• Major importing countries: Significant declines for South Korea and Bangladesh, but a surge in Chinese imports (718,000 tonnes vs. 31,105 tonnes prior year).
• Crushing slowdown in India is restricting meal availability until new crop arrivals (expected February–March).
• Global competition and shifting feed demand are intensifying export market pressures.

📊 Fundamentals

• Prices are firming: Indian rapeseed meal at US$245/tonne (ex-Kandla), up from US$223/tonne in Nov–Dec 2025.
• EU-origin meal (Hamburg) remains higher near US$276/tonne, keeping Indian supply competitively positioned.
• Recent support for soybean meal exports via government schemes underscores policy volatility.

Period	Indian Rapeseed Meal Price	EU-Origin Meal Price
Nov–Dec 2025	US$223/tonne	~US$276/tonne
Jan 2026 (avg)	US$261/tonne	~US$276/tonne
Mid-Feb 2026	US$245/tonne	~US$276/tonne

☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Prospects

• India: Dry conditions earlier in the season and slow arrivals are delaying crushing and export recovery.
• Ukraine & France: Current weather is mostly normal; expectation of timely spring seeding which could support near-term supply stability.
• Watch for: Any late-season frost or excessive rainfall which could impact new crop output in Northern Hemisphere.

🌐 Production & Stocks (Global Comparison)

• India: Facing raw material tightness; new arrivals expected Feb–March.
• Ukraine & EU: Supply relatively stable but strong export demand could quickly tighten stocks.
• Key Exporters: India, Ukraine, EU;
  Major Importers: China (rapidly scaling), South Korea, Bangladesh, Germany, France.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect price firmness to persist until Indian crop arrivals accelerate post-March.
• Indian meal remains price competitive to EU-origin, but logistics and currency risk must be monitored.
• Procurement recommended for buyers facing stock gaps, especially in anticipation of further tightening if new arrivals disappoint.
• Monitor Chinese demand trends—any continued surge will underpin Asian and global prices.
• Exporters should watch for renewed opportunities as Indian supply normalizes in late Q1.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Exchange/Market	Current Price	3-Day Outlook
Ukraine (Odesa)	Physical	€0.61/kg	Steady/Firming
France (Paris)	Physical	€0.55/kg	Stable
India (ex-Kandla)	Export (USD basis)	US$245/tonne	Steady/Firming