Soy Complex Softens at Front but Meal-Led Support Limits Downside

CBOT soybeans are edging slightly higher while soy oil weakens along the forward curve and soymeal continues to firm, leaving the complex broadly balanced but vulnerable to shifts in crush margins and South American supply.

The soy complex opens the week with a mixed tone. Nearby CBOT soybean futures trade around 1,163–1,179 USc/bu, modestly higher on the day, while soybean oil slips 0.3–0.6% across 2026–27 maturities and soymeal adds around 0.3–1.0%. Futures positioning reflects comfortable U.S. stocks and a largely successful South American harvest, but also robust crush demand and rising U.S. soybean acreage intentions. Physical FOB offers show a broadly steady to slightly softer tone in the Black Sea and China, while U.S. and Indian origin beans hold firm.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

CBOT soybean futures show a mildly firmer nearby structure: May 2026 trades around 1,163.75 USc/bu and July 2026 at 1,179.25 USc/bu, both up around 0.1–0.2% versus the previous session, with later contracts easing gradually into 2028–29. Soybean oil is softer: May 2026 stands near 66.2 USc/lb (−0.5% on the day), with a steady downward slope toward roughly 60–61 USc/lb by mid‑2027 and about 56 USc/lb by late 2028–29, signalling expectations of looser oil balance ahead.

Soymeal contrasts this weakness with broad gains. Nearby May 2026 is up almost 1% to about 335 USD/short ton, with 2026–27 maturities posting 0.3–0.7% daily increases. The soy complex thus presents a classic diverging picture: firm meal, soft oil and slightly higher beans. Recent two‑month CBOT soybean futures have risen around 0.9% on their strongest day this week, confirming a modest upward price bias without signaling a strong bull trend.

Contract / Market	Latest level (approx.)	Change vs prior day	In EUR (approx.)
CBOT Soybeans May 26	1,163.75 USc/bu	+0.13%	≈ €388/t
CBOT Soybean Oil May 26	66.2 USc/lb	−0.5%	≈ €1,35/kg
CBOT Soymeal May 26	335 USD/t	+1.0%	≈ €309/t
FOB Soybeans US No.2	0.60 EUR/kg	steady w/w	€600/t
FOB Soybeans Ukraine	0.34 EUR/kg	−0.01 EUR/kg w/w	€340/t

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

On the supply side, Brazil’s soybean harvest is now largely advanced, with recent reports indicating around 80% completion as of mid‑April. Weather disruptions earlier in the season caused some delays, but current progress suggests a sizable crop entering export channels. Argentina’s outlook remains solid: recent assessments keep production near 48–49 MMT for 2026/27, with April–May harvest of main‑crop beans (“soja primera”) underpinning regional supply.

In the U.S., acreage intentions provide a key forward‑looking signal. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report shows farmers planning about 84.7 million acres of soybeans for 2026, up 4% year‑on‑year, while March 1 soybean stocks are 10% above last year. This combination of expanding area and comfortable inventories points to a broadly adequate supply picture for 2026/27, assuming trend yields. Global balance sheets from the latest WASDE confirm relatively ample soy availability compared with corn, contributing to the current sideways‑to‑slightly‑firmer price environment rather than a strong rally.

📊 Fundamentals & Crush Dynamics

Crush demand is the key fundamental support for the complex. The recent USDA WASDE raised the 2025/26 soymeal production forecast by 800,000 short tons to 61.9 million and increased the season‑average soymeal price by 10 USD/t to 310 USD/t, highlighting strong feed demand and tightness in competing meals. At the same time, soybean oil prices have eased, but remain high enough to keep crushers profitable when combined with resilient meal values.

For soybeans themselves, the April WASDE nudged the U.S. farm‑gate price up by USD 0.10/bu to 10.30, even as ending stocks stayed unchanged, reinforcing the view of a comfortable yet not burdensome stock‑to‑use ratio (around 8.2%, above the five‑year average). The current futures curve—slightly backwardated in near months and then flattening—mirrors this balance: nearby tightness from active crush and logistics versus expectations of adequate new‑crop supply from the U.S. and South America. Physical FOB offers echo this: U.S. and Indian origins trade firm around €600–1,000/t equivalent, while Ukrainian and Chinese offers are steady to marginally softer, suggesting some regional competition but no major dislocation.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

In Brazil, with roughly four‑fifths of the soybean harvest complete, short‑term weather is less critical for volume but can still affect late‑harvest quality and logistics. Local reports highlight localized showers in central and southern areas, yet overall conditions allow harvesters to keep progressing, limiting upside risk to prices from weather in the immediate term.

In Argentina, April and May remain pivotal harvest months. Recent commentary from the Rosario Grain Exchange emphasises better‑than‑expected yields in several regions, supporting a stable 48 MMT production estimate. Barring a late‑season weather shock, Southern Hemisphere supply appears largely set, shifting market focus progressively toward U.S. planting weather in May–June, where emerging dryness or excessive moisture could quickly alter global balance‑sheet expectations.

📆 Trading Outlook & Risks

• Bias: Mildly constructive for soybeans and soymeal; neutral to slightly bearish for soybean oil over the next 1–2 weeks.
• Key support (old crop CBOT): 1,140–1,150 USc/bu; resistance around 1,190–1,200 USc/bu. A break above resistance likely requires either U.S. planting/weather stress or fresh demand surprises.
• Crush margins: Strong soymeal and still‑elevated oil keep crush attractive; any sharp correction in meal or further oil weakness would pressure soybean flat prices.
• Risk factors: U.S. planting delays, logistics bottlenecks in Brazil, or policy shifts (export taxes, biofuel mandates) could re‑price the complex quickly.

📉 3‑Day Indicative Price Direction (EUR‑based)

• CBOT Soybeans (nearby, € basis): Slight upward bias; expect mostly range‑bound trade equivalent to roughly €380–395/t, with modest volatility around U.S. macro data and positioning flows.
• CBOT Soymeal: Upward to stable; strong feed demand and recent WASDE revisions suggest support near €300/t with potential tests above €310/t if buying persists.
• CBOT Soybean Oil: Slight downward bias; forward curve softness and ample oilseed prospects point to gradual easing in €/kg terms, especially on deferred maturities.