Soya Market Pulse: China Powers Demand, Southeast Asia Rises, Price Momentum Builds

The global soya market remains a compelling mix of robust demand, shifting trade flows, and evolving price dynamics in late 2025. China continues to dominate as the single most significant driver, accounting for more than 60% of global soybean trade and expected to import 105 million tons in 2025. The relentless appetite from China’s crushing sector—producing both soybean oil and meal—underscores the country’s ongoing dependency on imports despite recent increases in domestic production. The heavy reliance (over 80%) on foreign supply makes China’s procurement strategies and price sensitivity highly consequential for world markets.

Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is stepping onto the main stage. Rapid industrialization in feed and food processing, especially in Vietnam and Thailand, is spurring tangible growth in soybean imports from a smaller base. This region’s double-digit growth rates could make it a crucial market for exporters in the coming years. In Europe, demand for high-quality, sustainably produced beans persists, with steady offtake centering on U.S. and South American origins.

Against this backdrop, international soy prices show renewed firmness, propped up by weather uncertainties in South America, logistics hiccups, and actively shifting global inventories. Market participants now face a highly nuanced environment where weather—and political calculus—will shape volatility and opportunity into early 2026.

📈 Prices & Sentiment

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.45	+0.03	Bullish
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	FOB	0.85	+0.05	Bullish
Ukraine	–	Odesa	FOB	0.35	+0.01	Stable
China	Yellow, Organic (99.8%)	Beijing	FOB	0.77	-0.02	Corrective
China	Yellow (99.5%)	Beijing	FOB	0.68	-0.02	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China: Projected to import 105 million tons in 2025, sustaining over 80% dependency on imports; crushing sector continues to fuel demand.
• Southeast Asia: Rapid demand growth led by Vietnam and Thailand, with food and feed processing on an uptrend.
• Europe: Demand stable; sustainability and quality requirements keep focus on US/South American origin.
• Global inventories: USDA updates show slightly tightening stocks in South America; expectation of lower inventories if adverse weather persists into next quarter.
• Speculative positions: Managed money is rebuilding long positions on concerns over South American crop stress and resilient import demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

Country/Region	2025 Production (mil tons)	2025 Imports (mil tons)	2025 Ending Stocks (mil tons)
US	119	0.5	7.5
Brazil	157	0.4	31.2
Argentina	50	0.2	7.9
China	20	105	30.3
EU	2.7	17.1	1.6

☀️ Weather Impact & Outlook

• Brazil: Wet conditions hinder late planting in southern states; ongoing El Niño effects raise concerns about yield loss.
• Argentina: Recent rains offer relief, but previous deficits mean risk of below-average yields remains high.
• US Midwest: Slightly wetter-than-average forecast boosts soil moisture, supportive for off-season fieldwork.
• China Northeast: Weather normalizing with good subsoil moisture, but cold snaps still a risk for late maturity beans.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Monitor South American weather—continued disruptions could push global prices higher, especially into Q1 2026.
• Consider long positions for Q1 2026 as speculative length is still building and stocks remain tight in Brazil.
• Chinese importers likely to remain aggressive buyers on dips; supports global price floor.
• Premiums on Indian and organic Chinese soybeans likely to persist given rising quality differentiation in Europe and Asia.
• Watch for policy announcements (tariffs, inspection changes) which could create short-term volatility in global trade flows.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range
CBOT (US)	0.45	0.44 – 0.48
New Delhi (IN)	0.85	0.84 – 0.88
Odesa (UA)	0.35	0.34 – 0.36
Beijing (CN, organic)	0.77	0.76 – 0.78