Steady Pulse: Fennel Market Shows Firm Prices Amid Stable Demand and Favorable Weather

The global fennel market, with a keen focus on India’s Unjha hub, is maintaining a calm and steady profile as we enter October. Recent trading activity in Unjha—a critical reference point for both domestic and export trade—reflects minimal price movement even as routine buying continues. Arrivals at the market are moderate, comfortably meeting underlying demand, with no surge in speculative purchasing ahead of the anticipated festive season. Traders are notably cautious, keeping stock levels lean as future price movements appear muted.

Premium fennel continues to command a clear price premium, but different grades are trading within tight bands, reinforcing the perception that supply-demand fundamentals are well-balanced. Importantly, weather conditions across major growing zones remain supportive, ensuring crop development and healthy farm-gate arrivals. This mix of adequate supply, stable demand, and favorable weather leads to a consensus among market observers: fennel prices are set to remain steady in the short term, with only marginal adjustments possible as the festive demand unfolds. This creates a low-volatility environment but does reward close monitoring, particularly as the market approaches seasonal inflection points in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Market	Commodity	Grade/Type	Purity	Country	City	Organic	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Unjha	Fennel	Premium	–	IN	Unjha	N/A	$38.00–$38.60/qtl	Stable	Neutral
New Delhi (FOB)	Fennel	Whole	–	IN	New Delhi	Yes	2.48	-0.02	Stable
New Delhi (FOB)	Fennel seeds	Grade – A	99%	IN	New Delhi	No	1.10	-0.02	Stable
New Delhi (FOB)	Fennel seeds	Grade – A	98%	IN	New Delhi	No	0.85	-0.01	Stable
Brasília (FOB)	Fennel seeds	–	98%	BR	Brasília	No	1.85	-0.05	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Arrivals in Unjha are at 2,000–2,200 bags, seen as ample for current requirements.
• Demand: Domestic and export demand remains consistent, with no aggressive restocking ahead of the festive season.
• Stockist Activity: Stockists are holding limited inventory, only anticipating marginal price moves near-term.

📊 Fundamentals

• Recent Trend: Market steady, with minimal fluctuations over the past week and no major rally on the horizon.
• Market Expectations: Sideways price action expected as supply and demand remain balanced.
• Quality Spread: Premium vs. lower-grade spreads holding firm, indicating no panic selling or abrupt demand shift.
• Speculative Action: Little speculative activity noted; traders adopting a wait-and-see approach.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Key producing regions in India currently experience favorable weather, supporting healthy crop progress and minimizing risks for the output in the coming weeks.
• No adverse weather events are forecast in the main Unjha belt or other vital producing areas, underlining the ongoing market stability.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Remains the dominant producer and exporter, with Unjha as the pricing benchmark. Stocks are comfortable near-term.
• Brazil: Export-ready stocks reported at steady price levels, reflecting global pricing correlations.
• Importers: Demand steady from major importers, with no signs of sudden inventory building or shortfalls.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Continue to monitor Unjha arrivals and stockist behavior for any early signs of festive-driven upswings.
• Lock-in contracts or cover purchase needs promptly if local weather turns adverse, although the risk is presently low.
• Exporters can maintain a neutral stance, as global buyers are not aggressively chasing volumes at this point.
• Short-term speculators are advised to exercise caution: With current low volatility, large moves are unlikely.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Grade	Forecast (EUR/kg)	Direction
Unjha	Premium	3.80–3.87	Stable
New Delhi (FOB)	Whole, Organic	2.47–2.50	Stable
New Delhi (FOB)	Grade – A, 99%	1.08–1.12	Stable
Brasília (FOB)	Grade – A, 98%	1.80–1.87	Stable