the almond market

The Almond Market Under Heavy Rain and Snow

Mintec Global
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The Almond Board of California has released the Almond Position Report with December 2022 shipments of +206.3 million pounds compared to 188.8 million pounds last year for a positive +9.3 percent.

Current shipments

Million LBSPercentYear to Date
Domestic52,47-18,4%-8,72%
Export15,88+23,6%+1,15%
COUNTRY2022 Million LBS2021 Million LBSIncrease Million LBS
India33,224,2+9
Korea4,76,1-1,4
Spain18,715,4+3,3
Germany7,97,7+0,2
Netherlands11,68,2+3,4
U.A.E11,95,4+6,5

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS

Year to date shipments are now at +1.041 billion pounds compared to 1.061 billion pounds last year for a decrease of -1.87 percent.

CROP RECEIPTS

Now are at +2.376 billion pounds compared to 2.656 billion pounds last year for a decrease of -10.56 percent.  The Objective Estimate had the crop at 2.6 billion pounds and we are tracking toward that number.

MARKET

Shipments to the International markets were outstanding, increasing +23.6 percent over last year while the domestic shipments were laggards down 18.4 percent. Exports are now positive by +1.15% for the season to date while Domestic shipments are down -8.72%. Western Europe was up +10.5 million lbs, the Middle East was up +11.4 million pounds, and South Central Asia was up +11.1 million pounds. Almond prices weakened slightly on Stds and Cal/Carmel while large-sized Nonpareil and Independence Kernels slide more during the past month.

With these lower prices, we have seen a recent surge in sales during the past month. Buyers were booking for both Q1 and Q2 requirements. Strong demand for kernels in Europe, the Middle East, and the USA and strong inshell demand in China and India. Buyers are locking in value now, and the retail stores are beginning to adjust pricing downwards to reflect the true market dynamics, which is stimulating consumption, combined with a weaker dollar in Europe. December new sales were at 234 million pounds compared to last year’s sales at 246 million pounds. The Industry is now sold at +52 percent for the carry-in and new crop combined.

RAIN

California is getting rain! We complain when we don’t have rain and now we are complaining we are getting too much at one time! We must be farmers😊 The State has received ample rains during the past few weeks pushing our seasonal rain totals (Sacramento) up to 15.41 inches compared to our normal 7.25 inches, which is double for this time of the year. Our two largest reservoirs are now filled as follows: Shasta at 42.3% and Oroville at 44.9% filled. Both reservoirs are making progress.

The Ground is very wet and flooding is occurring in many areas. Almond trees will drown if they are below water for more than three days, so it is a big concern. Here is a photo from an Orchard near Sacramento. Many orchards throughout the state are in standing water.

almond rain

SNOW PACK: OUTSTANDING!!!

The State of California reported on January 3, 2023 that the Snow Pack is outstanding for this time period:

  • North State at 177% of Normal Snow Pack
  • Central State at 214% of Normal Snow Pack
  • South State at 257% of Normal Snow Pack

Since that report came out, more snow storms have hit the Sierra Nevada mountains with another 5-7 feet of snow accumulating, so our real snow pack should be another 10-20% higher than the above numbers.. This is good for our State, for people, fishing, and Agriculture as we should have adequate water for growing almonds this coming year. One Ski area in Tahoe has over 23 feet ( 7 meters) of snow!

almond snow

TREES

The trees look good. We have had excellent chill hours combined with the healthy rains, so we have deep water penetration in the roots as the Bloom draws near in late February. The Bud Set on the trees looks fantastic and should shape up to be a very good crop as long as the bloom is normal and without a severe frost and some of these flood orchards see a reprieve from the excessive water standing in them.

CURRENCY: The US Dollar has weakened against some currencies and strengthened against others during the past month.

  • 1 Euro =  1.07 dollars
  • 1 US Dollar = 81.64 Indian Rupee
  • 1 US Dollar= 18.79 Turkish Lira
  • 1 US Dollar = 6.78 Chinese Yuan
  • 1 US Dollar= 3.67  U.A.E. Dirham

OUTLOOK

Prices will remain stable , with a slight firmness with this positive shipping number, in the near term assisting in stimulating more consumption around the world!

Import/Export Statistics

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