the hazelnut market awaits election results, crop estimates to be announced at INC in London

The Hazelnut Market Awaits Election Results, Crop Estimates to Be Announced at INC in London

Mintec Global
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In the night from Sunday to Monday, Türkiye and many from abroad followed the counting of the election with great tension. With a turnout of around 87%, the importance of this election became clear once again. While the parliamentary election was expected to produce another majority for the People’s Alliance led by the AKP with President Erdogan, the opposition forced the President into a run-off this time. However, contrary to the expectations of many opinion polls, the result was significantly less in favour of the opposition than expected. Therefore, there is a certain disillusionment in the opposition camp. The way we perceive the mood at the moment, we assume that we will continue to see familiar faces on the political scene in the coming years.

Relief for the hazelnut market

What is a disappointment for many brings a certain relief for the hazelnut market. The expected exchange rate hikes did not materialize and the week was completely unspectacular, contrary to expectations. There were also no new election promises with which the candidates would have tried to get voters on their side. The holiday on Friday (Atatürk Memorial Day / Youth and Sports Day) also brought further calm to the market.

After the market essentially did not react, with commodity prices remaining unchanged, we were able to note isolated inquiries/trades. However, the general situation has not changed as a result of the election. Buyers continue to hope for a falling market due to optimistic crop forecasts worldwide, while sellers are confronted with rising producer prices against the background of inflation. Furthermore, sellers are pinning their hopes on a further weakening of the Turkish lira after the outcome of the run-off election on 28.05.2023.

Crop estimate at INC in London

Next week, Turkish exporters will present their crop estimate at the INC in London. A figure of 813,000 mt has already been mentioned in advance. However, it is unclear whether this will be the figure that is published. We suspect that the harvest will be lower (< 700,000 mt), but the exporters also have an interest in the market settling as low as possible and therefore tend to present a politically (too) optimistic estimate to lower the expectations of the farmers as well as of the Turkish government when setting the guaranteed minimum price. An expected conclusion of the INC will again be that production is rising and consumption cannot keep pace with the increase in production.

The coming week is likely to be dominated by the INC, although we do not expect it to provide any impetus for the market. This should only be the case after the run-off election next weekend.

Bullet points

  • The presidential elections do not produce a clear winner in the first round. The decision will be made in the run-off on 28 May.
  • Commodity and export prices remain stable again, changes are due to the exchange rate.
  • Expected exchange rate fluctuations do not occur due to the outcome of the election.
  • From Export Union circles, a figure of 813,000 mt is given as an estimate for the coming harvest. Whether this will be the figure published at the INC next week is still unclear.
  • This week we registered a slight increase in buying interest.

Import/Export Statistics

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