The Grain Association of Ukraine preliminarily estimates the potential harvest of 2023 at the level of 68 million tons of grain and oilseeds. This is 36% less than the harvest of 2021 (106 million tons) before the full-scale invasion of Russia. In 2022, the harvest reached 73.8 million tons of grain and oil crops.
Ukraine can use about 19.5 million hectares, compared to 25 million hectares in previous years.
Grains forecast
The wheat harvest in Ukraine in 2023 may amount to only 17.9 million tons. (In 2022 it was 20.2 million tons, and in 2021 – a record 33 million tons). The area under wheat decreased by more than 2 million hectares. However, even such a harvest is more than enough to ensure domestic demand and food security of the country. But it will reduce the export potential to ensure food security in the world. The export of wheat in 2023/2024 may amount to about 15 million tons.
Estimated barley harvest in 2023 — 4.4 million tons. (In 2021 — 10.1 million tons, and in 2022 — 5.8 million tons). And exports in 2023/2024 can be at the level of 2 million tons.
The corn harvest is estimated at 23.3 million tons due to a decrease in planted areas. (In 2021 — 37.6 million tons, in 2022 — 27.3 million tons). Corn exports may amount to about 19 million tons.
Oilseeds forecast
The sunflower harvest can reach the level of 12.7 million tons in connection with the increase in cultivated areas. (In 2021 — 16.9 million tons, in 2022 — 11.1 million tons). Exports may amount to 1.2 million tons Sunflower oil processing can reach 11.5 million tons.
Analysts estimate the rapeseed harvest in 2023 at 3.8 million tons. While exports are expected at a level of 3.5 million tons.
Soybean harvest is forecasted at almost 4.4 million tons, with export in 2023/2024 MR — 3 million tons.
In general, the export of grain and oilseeds in 2023/2024 MR can be expected at the indicated level if the operation of Ukrainian Black Sea ports is maintained. A decrease in the harvest and export of grain from Ukraine will have a negative impact on the availability of grain on the world market.
Import/Export Statistics
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