The 2023 Crop USDA Objective Estimate for Walnut production was released today at 790,00 tons, up 5% from 2022 crop production of 752,000 tons. The forecast is based on 385,000 bearing acres, down 4% from 2022’s estimated bearing acreage of 400,000.
The 2023 Walnut O.M. Survey utilized a total of 675 blocks with two sample trees per block. Survey data indicated an average nut set per tree of 1,004, up 2% from 2022’s average of 981. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 99.2% statewide. The average in-shell weight and dimensions for 2023 were: 21.5 grams, suture measurement was 32.7 millimeters, cross-width measurement was 33.3, and the average length was 39.1 millimeters.
Ideal weather
The cold winter temperatures ensured chill hours were sufficient for walnut trees. A wet winter and spring helped restore soil moisture in walnut orchards across the state. Percent sound results from the Objective Measurement survey indicate nut quality will be increased from last year. Growers across the state struggled with high production costs.
Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number of trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were used in the statistical models.
SURVEY HISTORY
The Walnut O.M. Survey began in 1958 to fulfill industry needs for an accurate walnut production forecast prior to harvest. The original sample was chosen proportionally to county and variety of bearing acreage. With each succeeding year, additions and deletions have been made in the sample to adjust for acreage removed, new bearing acreage, and operations that choose not to participate in the survey.
SAMPLING PROCEDURES
The 2023 Walnut Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey was officially conducted from July 22 through August 25, 2023. There were a few samples completed before July 22nd for training and scheduling purposes. There were 1,350 trees sampled from 675 orchards.
Once a block is randomly selected and permission is granted by the operation for enumerators to enter the block, two trees are randomly selected. An accessible branch is chosen which is 5- 15 percent of the total cross-sectional area of the primary limbs and reachable with a twelve-foot ladder. Measurements are made on the trunk, each primary, and each split leading to and including the accessible branch. The sample tree and accessible branch are marked by a single tag, so that the same trees are sampled the following year if that orchard is selected. On the accessible branch, every nut is counted and the first of every five nuts is picked for use in size and grade determinations. If available, at least ten nuts are harvested from the accessible branch for this purpose.
The following measurements are made on nuts selected for sizing:
- Weight of nut including hull
- Width of shell at suture
- Width of shell 90 degrees to suture line (cross-suture)
- Length of shell
- Kernel grade
- Weight of nut in-shell
The Objective Measurement Survey is funded by the California Walnut Board.
DATA RELIABILITY
The 80 percent confidence interval is from 715,000 tons to 865,000 tons.
|
Year |
Bearing acres |
Trees per acre | Per bearing acre | Total production | Price per ton | Total value |
| Tons | Dollars | 1,000 Dollars | ||||
| 2004 | 214,000 | 60.3 | 1.52 | 325,000 | 1,390 | 451,750 |
| 2005 | 215,000 | 61.1 | 1.65 | 355,000 | 1,570 | 557,350 |
| 2006 | 216,000 | 62.4 | 1.60 | 346,000 | 1,630 | 563,980 |
| 2007 | 218,000 | 62.9 | 1.50 | 328,000 | 2,290 | 751,120 |
| 2008 | 230,000 | 65.0 | 1.90 | 436,000 | 1,280 | 558,080 |
| 2009 | 240,000 | 65.1 | 1.82 | 437,000 | 1,710 | 747,270 |
| 2010 | 255,000 | 67.0 | 1.98 | 504,000 | 2,040 | 1,028,160 |
| 2011 | 265,000 | 67.0 | 1.74 | 461,000 | 2,900 | 1,336,900 |
| 2012 | 270,000 | 68.6 | 1.84 | 497,000 | 3,030 | 1,505,910 |
| 2013 | 280,000 | 69.2 | 1.76 | 492,000 | 3,710 | 1,825,320 |
| 2014 | 290,000 | 71.6 | 1.97 | 571,000 | 3,340 | 1,907,140 |
| 2015 | 300,000 | 72.0 | 2.02 | 606,000 | 1,670 | 1,012,020 |
| 2016 | 315,000 | 73.3 | 2.19 | 689,000 | 1,850 | 1,274,650 |
| 2017 | 335,000 | 74.1 | 1.88 | 630,000 | 2,490 | 1,568,700 |
| 2018 | 350,000 | 75.5 | 1.94 | 679,000 | 1,350 | 916,650 |
| 2019 | 365,000 | 76.9 | 1.79 | 655,000 | 1,890 | 1,237,950 |
| 2020 | 380,000 | 76.8 | 2.08 | 790,000 | 1,200 | 948,000 |
| 2021 | 390,000 | 78.0 | 1.88 | 733,000 | 1,450 | 1,062,850 |
| 2022 1 | 400,000 | 80.0 | 1.88 | 752,000 | 630 | 473,760 |
| 2023 2 3 | 385,000 | 81.0 | 2.05 | 790,000 | NA | NA |
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