Wheat Market Drifts Sideways as New-Crop Premium Widens

Euronext and CBOT wheat are trading slightly firmer but largely sideways, with a visible carry into 2027–28, while physical FOB prices in France, the US and Ukraine have eased modestly over April. The market remains comfortable on near-term supply, but weather and Black Sea export dynamics keep a modest risk premium in new-crop months.

Wheat futures on Euronext (MATIF), CBOT and ICE feed wheat show a broadly stable structure, with front contracts flat on April 24 and only small gains in CBOT overnight trade on April 27. The forward curve remains upward sloping, signaling adequate old-crop availability and a moderate premium for 2027–28. In the physical market, FOB values from Paris, Washington and Odesa have softened by about EUR 1–2/t since early April, reflecting good export competition and still comfortable global stocks. Weather in key Northern Hemisphere regions is becoming the main driver to watch as crop conditions move through critical spring stages.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

On Euronext, May 2026 wheat last traded at about EUR 195/t, with September 2026 at EUR 209/t and December 2026 at EUR 217/t. The curve continues higher into 2027–28, with March 2027 around EUR 223/t and May 2028 near EUR 232/t, implying a roughly EUR 30–35/t carry from spot to long-dated positions.

CBOT wheat is modestly firmer in early trade on April 27, with May 2026 around 610 USc/bu and July 2026 about 619 USc/bu, up roughly 0.2–0.3% versus the previous close. ICE feed wheat in the UK shows mixed but overall stable levels, with May 2026 near EUR 212/t equivalent, while deferred months move gradually higher, in line with the general carry structure across exchanges.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather

Old-crop supply in the Atlantic basin remains comfortable, as reflected by the lack of rally in nearby MATIF and ICE contracts and the modest contango along the curve. The premium of late-2027 and 2028 contracts over nearby months points to sufficient current stocks but also to uncertainty over future production, particularly in Europe and the Black Sea.

Physical offers confirm this picture: FOB wheat (11% protein) from France (Paris) slipped from about EUR 290/t in early April to roughly EUR 270/t by April 24, while US-origin wheat (11.5% protein, CBOT-linked) moved from around EUR 210/t to EUR 190/t over the same period. Ukrainian FOB values from Odesa are highly competitive at roughly EUR 170–180/t depending on protein, underscoring strong export pressure from the Black Sea even as logistical and geopolitical risks persist.

📊 Fundamentals & Basis

The spread between futures and physical cash values has narrowed slightly over April as FOB prices eased faster than exchange quotations. French 11% protein FOB Paris is currently about EUR 270/t, implying a positive basis versus the nearby MATIF May 2026 contract, while US FOB levels near EUR 190/t sit at a discount to CBOT futures after adjusting for quality and freight.

In Ukraine, FCA prices in Odesa and Kyiv are broadly stable (around EUR 230–250/t depending on protein and location), indicating that domestic margins are under pressure from low export prices and rising logistics costs. The overall structure suggests that importers retain good bargaining power in the short term, while exporters rely on volume rather than price to clear stocks.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Strategy

• Price bias (3–7 days): Slightly firmer to sideways. With futures in modest carry and physical prices already lower, downside appears limited unless weather turns clearly favorable across all key producers.
• For buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q3–Q4 2026 needs on dips near current futures levels, using the carry structure to lock in storage costs while leaving some flexibility for potential weather-driven setbacks.
• For sellers: Producers with unpriced old-crop should use the current contango to extend hedges into late-2026 or early-2027 maturities, especially if local cash basis remains firm relative to futures.
• Risk factors: Sudden weather deterioration in the US Plains, EU or Black Sea, or renewed disruptions to Black Sea export flows, could quickly tighten the balance and lift both futures and FOB markets.

📍 3-Day Directional View (EUR)

Market	Key Contract	Approx. Level (EUR/t)	3-Day View
MATIF (Euronext)	May 2026	≈ 195	Slightly firmer / sideways
CBOT (SRW, EUR-equiv.)	Jul 2026	≈ 205	Slightly firmer
ICE Feed Wheat	May 2026	≈ 212	Sideways