Argentine Soybeans: Fertilizer Shock, Policy Risks and Firm Crush Margins

Soybean prices are holding firm after recent gains in futures, while Argentina heads into 2026/27 with slightly higher soybean area but only average yields and persistent policy uncertainty. Fertilizer price spikes and unchanged export taxes are pushing the crop mix in favor of soy over corn, underpinning Argentine supply and crush, but limiting upside for farmers’ margins.

Argentina remains a pivotal player in the global soy complex, with soybeans functioning as both a cash crop and a financial asset in a volatile macro environment. For 2026/27, planted area is forecast at 17.4 Mha and production at 49 MMT, with first‑crop soy expanding and second‑crop soy trimming back alongside reduced wheat area. Domestic crush stays high, supported by strong soybean oil prices and sustained margins, while whole‑bean exports stabilize at 5.5 MMT, largely to China. Internationally, CBOT soybeans are trading around EUR 405–415/t equivalent after a modest weekly rise, as firmer soymeal demand offsets competition from South American supplies. Market participants should watch fertilizer and policy moves in Buenos Aires as key swing factors for acreage, selling pace and price direction into the planting window.

📈 Prices

Benchmark CBOT soybean futures have firmed, with front‑month contracts around 1,175–1,180 USc/bu as of April 10, 2026, up roughly 1.1% on the week, yet still below highs seen in March. This translates to approximately EUR 410/t at current FX, keeping international values elevated versus a year ago but below recent peaks. Cash and offer indications from key origins show a mixed but generally steady tone in euro terms.

Origin	Specification	Delivery (FOB)	Latest offer (EUR/kg)	Change vs prior quote
US (Washington D.C.)	Soybeans No. 2	FOB	≈0.56	Stable w/w
India (New Delhi)	Soybeans sortex clean	FOB	≈0.93	Stable w/w
Ukraine (Odesa)	Soybeans	FOB	≈0.32	Slightly lower w/w
China (Beijing)	Soybeans yellow	FOB	≈0.65	Stable w/w

(All USD/kg indications converted at ~0.93 EUR/USD.)

🌍 Supply & Demand (Argentina‑centric)

Argentina’s soybean area is broadly stable and structurally entrenched: 17.4 Mha are forecast for 2026/27, with only marginal scope for expansion given that most arable land is already cropped and remaining land is lower potential or logistically constrained. Soy remains the preferred crop in a high‑inflation, low‑credit environment, acting as a store of value and payment unit for land rent and inputs. A large domestic crush sector guarantees year‑round demand and liquidity for farmers’ soybeans.

Production in 2026/27 is forecast at 49 MMT, up slightly on expanded area but with yields drifting back toward trend after the current season’s historically high outcomes in several regions, especially for second‑crop soy. Around 70% of the area will be first‑crop soy with higher yields, and 30% second‑crop following wheat, which yields less but remains key in rotation systems. Lower expected wheat and barley plantings, driven by costly fertilizer and weaker prices, will release some land into first‑crop soy, partly offset by shifts to sunflower in certain zones.

On the demand side, soybean crush is projected at 42 MMT in 2026/27, slightly below the prior year but well above the 10‑year average (38.9 MMT). Roughly 86% of domestic soybean production will be processed locally, sustaining Argentina’s role as the top global exporter of soymeal and a major soy oil supplier. Crush margins, currently a robust USD 30–35/t thanks to strong soybean oil prices, are expected to normalize but remain supportive of high plant utilization. Imports, mainly higher‑protein Paraguayan beans, are forecast at 6.5 MMT to keep crushers running, while whole‑bean exports stabilize at 5.5 MMT, almost entirely destined for China.

📊 Fundamentals & Policy Drivers

Despite the modest supply growth, Argentina’s soybean balance is tightening at the margin due to strong crush and rebuilding stocks. Beginning stocks for 2026/27 are seen at 5.15 MMT, rising to 8.15 MMT by the end of the season as production increases and exports normalize following the exceptional 2024/25 tax‑holiday driven surge. Farmers continue to hold a large share of stocks on‑farm in silo bags, delaying sales in anticipation of higher prices or another round of tax relief.

Export taxes (“retenciones”) remain the key structural drag on farmer incentives. Soybeans currently face a 24% export tax, with slightly lower rates on by‑products, and the government shows no sign of fully removing them despite sector pressure and the proven stimulus effect of the 2025 zero‑tax window. Only a full and durable removal of retenciones would likely trigger a meaningful expansion in soy area via conversion of pasture and marginal lands. Until then, area shifts will occur mainly within existing cropland, largely between soy, corn, wheat and sunflower.

Fertilizer prices are the dominant short‑term driver of crop choice. A recent USD 200/t jump in nitrogen fertilizers following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has sharply worsened corn economics, while soybeans, with far lower fertilizer needs, remain comparatively attractive. At today’s elevated fertilizer levels, many growers can still plant corn but with compressed margins; a sustained or further spike could push materially more area into soy at the expense of corn in 2026/27, especially in regions more sensitive to input costs and credit constraints.

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

Looking ahead to the 2026/27 campaign, baseline expectations assume a return to average yields rather than the very high outcomes seen this year in several core areas. Soil moisture at planting is unlikely to be as favorable as in the current season, when high reserves helped crops ride out a dry spell from late December to mid‑February. Producers are also factoring in the possibility of an El Niño phase, which would typically bring above‑normal rainfall during the Argentine summer growing season, potentially offsetting early moisture deficits but also raising disease and lodging risks in some areas.

The two‑crop structure amplifies weather sensitivity: first‑crop soy, planted October–December and harvested April–May, is expected to provide about 70% of output and will be most influenced by spring moisture and mid‑summer heat. Second‑crop soy, planted after wheat into January and harvested May–July, carries inherently lower yield potential and is more vulnerable to late‑season dryness. For now, the forecast of 49 MMT assumes broadly normal weather; any pronounced El Niño event or planting‑time moisture shock would skew yields accordingly.

📆 Market & Trading Outlook

Globally, the soy complex is finding support from stronger soymeal demand and firm soybean oil prices, even as competition from South American exports weighs on U.S. market share. Recent data show CBOT May 2026 futures around 1,168–1,175 USc/bu with only a slight carry into later contracts, signaling a relatively balanced forward curve without a strong bullish inverse.

🎯 Key trading considerations (EUR‑denominated view)

• Producers in Argentina: With current futures levels near EUR 400–415/t equivalent and strong crush demand, consider layering in sales or hedges on a portion of expected 2025/26–2026/27 production, especially for first‑crop soy. Maintain flexibility on the remainder to benefit from potential weather‑ or policy‑driven rallies, particularly any renewed talk of export tax changes.
• Consumers & feed buyers: Strong domestic and export soymeal demand, plus high oil prices, argue for continued firm crush. Users should look to secure coverage on dips below EUR 400/t equivalent on CBOT, using a mix of physical forward purchases and paper hedging to buffer against El Niño‑related yield surprises in the Southern Hemisphere.
• Merchants & crushers: Elevated but normalizing crush margins and underutilized capacity (about 63% at 42 MMT crush) favor aggressive bean origination, including Paraguay imports, while monitoring policy risk around retenciones. Basis and protein spreads will remain key: blending higher‑protein Paraguayan beans with local supplies will stay central to export competitiveness in meal.

📌 3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR)

• CBOT nearby soybeans (EUR/t): Bias: mildly firm. Expect range‑bound trade roughly EUR 400–420/t as the market digests recent soymeal‑driven gains and monitors South American harvest progress.
• Argentina FOB Up‑River beans (EUR/t, theoretical): Stable to slightly firmer, supported by strong crush demand and farmer selling reluctance amid tax and FX uncertainty.
• FOB US Gulf beans (EUR/t): Slight downside risk relative to CBOT on export competition from Brazil and Argentina, but limited by the generally firm global soy complex.