Cashew market in April: India’s harvest keeps prices soft, but freight risks loom

India’s cashew market is in a seasonally soft but stable phase, with ample raw nut arrivals keeping wholesale prices competitive and upside limited until after the current harvest winds down in May–June.

Indian processors benefit from strong domestic crop inflows and continued African raw nut imports, while demand is steady rather than booming; short-term sentiment is neutral to mildly soft, but tightening inventories and elevated freight costs point to a firmer tone into early summer.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

India is in the tail end of its peak cashew harvesting season in April, which traditionally marks the lowest wholesale price window before off-season tightening from May. Current raw cashew prices in Indian mandis are around ₹12,800 per quintal (~₹128/kg), while retail kernel prices in major cities such as Delhi and Mumbai range between ₹597 and ₹653 per kg. At the export level, Indian kernel offers for 2026 are broadly in the band of about €4.70–€5.10/kg (converted from $5.04–$5.51/kg), depending on grade and moisture.

Recent kernel indications in Europe and Asia are broadly consistent with this range. For example, conventional Indian W320 kernels ex-New Delhi around €6.30–€6.40/kg FOB and EU-distributed WW320 around €4.50–€4.70/kg FCA suggest a relatively narrow, steady band for mainstream grades, with only marginal week-on-week adjustment. The overall price structure therefore confirms a rangebound market, with neither strong downside break nor clear bullish breakout evident in early April.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Fresh raw cashew arrivals from Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and Odisha are currently feeding the processing pipeline, ensuring comfortable near-term supply. India also continues to rely on African origins such as Ivory Coast, Tanzania and Mozambique for more than 70% of its raw cashew import requirements. This dual sourcing helps processors smooth domestic crop volatility and maintain throughput even if localized weather or yield setbacks occur.

On the demand side, India’s cashew sector is underpinned by rising domestic snacking consumption and stable export activity. The market value is estimated to have reached about $2.35 billion in 2025 and is projected to edge up to $2.46 billion in 2026, reflecting gradual volume growth and a modest premiumization trend in higher grades. Export demand at the moment is described as steady but not exceptional, with key destinations including the United States, United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, Japan and Saudi Arabia absorbing consistent volumes of popular W210 and W240 grades.

🚢 External Shocks & Logistics

The ongoing US–Iran conflict and related disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea are raising freight and war-risk insurance costs on routes transiting the Middle East. Indian exporters across several agri-commodities are already reporting higher bunker surcharges, diversions around the Cape of Good Hope and elongated transit times. These conditions are feeding through into cashew supply chains as well, particularly for shipments to Europe, the Gulf and North America that typically use Suez-connected corridors.

So far, the impact on cashews is more cost- than volume-driven: export flows are continuing, but elevated logistics costs are squeezing margins and making buyers more price-sensitive. Traders report a cautious approach to new forward sales while they assess whether ceasefire signals and partial reopening of key routes will translate into durable freight relief. If disruptions persist into the second half of Q2, exporters may seek to pass a greater share of the freight premium into kernel prices, especially for spot and small-volume contracts.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather conditions in India’s coastal cashew belt have so far allowed a normal conclusion to the 2025/26 harvest, supporting the active arrivals seen in April. Looking ahead, the first-stage 2026 Southwest Monsoon outlook from India’s meteorological authorities points to below-normal rainfall, around 92% ± 5% of the long-period average. While cashew is less monsoon-sensitive than some kharif staples, subpar rainfall could influence flowering and nut set for the next crop, particularly in more marginal orchards.

In West Africa, early-season reports indicate that raw cashew nut availability remains broadly adequate, with governments in some origins, such as Ghana, announcing minimum producer prices to support farmer income. For Indian processors who rely heavily on African raw nut imports, any weather-related downgrades or policy tightening in these origins would be an important watchpoint for late-2026 supply security and cost structure.

📊 Fundamentals & Short-Term Outlook

Fundamentals currently align with a neutral to mildly soft sentiment. Strong new-crop arrivals, plus access to African raw nuts, are keeping processors well supplied and limiting upside in the next two to four weeks. At the same time, domestic and export demand remain healthy enough to prevent a sharp correction, especially given the approaching summer snacking season and India’s wedding-related confectionery demand, which typically supports kernel offtake.

From May, the seasonal shift becomes more supportive. As peak arrivals fade, raw nut availability tightens and processors with low coverage will need to step back into the market, underpinning kernel prices. Combined with elevated freight costs and possible risk premia in logistics, this suggests a higher probability of gradual price firming in May–June rather than further downside from current levels, particularly for popular whole grades (W240/W320) and organic segments.

💡 Trading Outlook (next 4–8 weeks)

• Buyers (importers/roasters): Use April’s rangebound window to secure at least partial coverage into Q3, focusing on key grades like W240 and W320 where Indian and Vietnamese offers remain competitive. Consider staggered purchases to balance near-term softness against potential May–June tightening.
• Processors in India: Avoid excessive discounting on kernels; instead, prioritize margin protection as freight and insurance costs rise. For raw nut procurement, maintain diversified African sourcing to hedge any domestic yield or monsoon risks.
• Traders: Short-term downside appears limited; risk-reward now favours cautious long or at least neutral positioning, with optionality to benefit from a seasonal rebound if export enquiries increase or logistics premiums are pushed through to CIF prices.

📆 3-Day Price Indication (directional, in EUR)

Market	Grade	Indicative Level (EUR/kg)	Direction (3 days)
India, New Delhi FOB	W320, conventional	≈ €6.3–6.4	Stable
Vietnam, Hanoi FOB	WW320, conventional	≈ €6.2–6.4	Stable to slightly firm
EU, Netherlands FCA	WW320, conventional	≈ €4.5–4.7	Stable