Chinese Soybean Exports Tighten as FOB Prices Edge Higher

China’s soybean market is firming, supported by strong export demand for non-GMO beans to Korea and steady price gains in domestic FOB quotations.

Chinese soybean exports are increasingly concentrated, with Korea absorbing nearly 60% of China’s soybean-related exports in 2025 by both volume and value. This strong pull for non-GMO yellow soybeans, alongside niche flows of soybean flour, is underpinning domestic price resilience despite competitive origins from the US, India and Ukraine. Recent data show modest but persistent upticks in FOB prices from Beijing, suggesting a market that is well bid rather than oversupplied. For now, buyers face a mildly bullish environment, with limited room for deep price corrections unless export demand cools or rival suppliers discount more aggressively.

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📈 Prices & Spreads

Recent FOB indications (converted approx. to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR) show:

Origin / Type	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1W Change (EUR/kg)
CN yellow, organic	Beijing	FOB	0.74	+0.01
CN yellow, conventional	Beijing	FOB	0.66	+0.02
US No. 2	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.55	≈0.00

Chinese offers have inched higher since late March, with organic yellow beans gaining around 1–2% and conventional grades up roughly 3–4%. The premium of Chinese yellow soybeans over US No. 2 remains notable, reflecting non-GMO quality, logistics into Asian destinations and China’s growing role as a niche supplier to neighbouring markets.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Customs data for 2025 show China’s soybean-related exports reaching about 105.3 kt, with total export value near USD 88.3 million. Korea stands out as the dominant outlet, taking 61.1 kt, or almost 58% of China’s total soybean-related export volume and about 56.6% of export value. This concentration means Korea is now the key marginal buyer shaping China’s export pricing.

China’s outbound shipments are driven mainly by non-GMO yellow soybeans (about 59.3 kt) and, to a lesser extent, soybean flour (around 1.8 kt). The strong preference for non-GMO beans in regional markets such as Korea, Japan, Denmark, Vietnam and Hong Kong supports a quality premium for Chinese origin. While global bulk trade is still dominated by Brazil and the US, China is increasingly positioning its non-GMO segment as a specialised, higher-value export channel to nearby Asian markets.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

The current firmness in Chinese FOB prices reflects a combination of steady export programs and limited non-GMO supply at consistent quality standards. Export concentration into a few high-value markets makes China relatively price-sensitive to Korean demand, but it also allows exporters to defend premiums when buyers prioritise origin and certification over lowest price. The modest month-on-month price increases suggest tight but not extreme fundamentals.

Competition from the US and Ukraine, where FOB levels are substantially lower in EUR terms, caps the upside, especially for feed-grade demand. However, logistics into North-East Asia and non-GMO requirements still favour Chinese origin for certain food and specialty segments. If Korean and Japanese demand remains stable into mid-year, the current premium structure is likely to persist, with only limited downside unless currency moves or freight costs shift sharply.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

• For importers in Korea/Japan: Consider partial forward coverage at current CN FOB levels for non-GMO needs, as premiums are supported by concentrated supply and quality constraints.
• For Chinese exporters: Maintain offer discipline, especially on organic and certified non-GMO parcels, but stay flexible on shipment timing to compete with cheaper US and Black Sea origins in more price-sensitive segments.
• For feed buyers: Where quality specs allow, evaluate blending or partial substitution from lower-priced origins (US, Ukraine) while using Chinese beans primarily for higher-spec food channels.

📍 3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• CN FOB Beijing, yellow organic: Mildly firm; sideways to slightly higher bias given strong Korean demand and tight non-GMO supply.
• CN FOB Beijing, yellow conventional: Stable to mildly firm; support from export program but capped by cheaper US supply.
• US FOB Gulf / Washington D.C. No. 2: Broadly stable in EUR terms; relative discount to CN origin likely to persist in the very short term.

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