China’s Soybean Exports Pivot on Korea While Domestic Prices Edge Higher

China’s soybean market is currently shaped by a fast-growing but still niche export segment of non-GMO food beans, led by South Korea, while domestic FOB prices in Beijing have been edging higher. The overall picture is one of firm fundamentals and targeted external demand rather than broad-based export expansion.

In 2025, China’s soybean-related exports remained small versus its huge import needs but showed a clear concentration in high-grade non-GMO food beans for nearby Asian buyers. South Korea dominated this trade with more than half of China’s total soybean-related export volume and value, underlining a tight regional value chain in tofu, soy foods and specialty processing. At the same time, domestic prices and Dalian futures reflect generally firm sentiment amid solid meal demand, stable global supply and benign weather expectations for Chinese growing regions.

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📈 Prices & Spreads

Domestic physical offers indicate a firm to slightly rising price environment in China. Recent FOB Beijing quotations (16 April 2026) show conventional yellow soybeans at about EUR 0.66/kg and organic yellow soybeans near EUR 0.73/kg, both modestly above levels seen in late March, pointing to steady demand and limited immediate downside.

In comparison, US No. 2 soybeans are offered around EUR 0.55/kg FOB, while Indian sortex-clean beans are closer to EUR 0.92/kg and Ukrainian beans near EUR 0.31/kg, confirming China’s beans are priced at a premium to bulk Black Sea origins but competitive against higher-grade alternatives. Dalian No.1 soybean futures for July 2026 recently traded around 4,819 CNY/t (roughly EUR 615/t), slightly softer day-on-day but still consistent with a broadly balanced market.

Origin / Type	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–2 Week Trend
CN Yellow, non-organic	Beijing, FOB	≈0.66	Firm to slightly higher
CN Yellow, organic	Beijing, FOB	≈0.73	Firm to slightly higher
US No. 2	FOB US	≈0.55	Stable
IN sortex clean	FOB India	≈0.92	Stable
UA standard	FOB Odesa	≈0.29	Slightly weaker

🌍 Trade Focus: Korea-Led Niche Export Boom

Customs data for 2025 highlight that China’s soybean-related exports are highly concentrated both by product and destination. Total exports reached about 105,342 tonnes with a value of USD 88.32 million. South Korea alone absorbed 61,072.89 tonnes (around 61.1 thousand tonnes), accounting for 57.98% of volume and 56.55% of export value – effectively more than half of China’s entire soybean-related export business.

Exports to South Korea are dominated by non-GMO yellow soybeans (59,287.99 tonnes) and complemented by soybean flour (1,784.9 tonnes), underscoring Korea’s reliance on Chinese beans for food-use processing rather than bulk crushing. Other key outlets include Japan, Denmark, Vietnam and Hong Kong, but none approach Korea’s scale. Recent international analysis continues to show South Korea’s domestic soybean production under pressure and crush largely flat, reinforcing its need for imported food and specialty beans over the medium term.

📊 Fundamentals & Demand Drivers

China’s export mix is skewed toward high-quality, identity-preserved non-GMO beans, which command a price premium but rely on a narrow set of Asian buyers. The 2025 structure – with Korea, Japan and regional markets taking most volumes – suggests that even small shifts in these countries’ procurement or food-industry demand can materially impact China’s export statistics. Nonetheless, the latest figures confirm that South Korea has strengthened its role versus 2023, both in absolute volumes and in share of China’s outbound soybean-related trade.

On the import side, China remains the world’s largest soybean buyer, with Russian, Brazilian and other origins competing actively for crushing demand. Recent data show Russian soybean shipments to China in March reaching the highest level since late 2023, pointing to continued diversification of supply. Global balance sheets from the latest WASDE update indicate comfortable world soybean availability in 2025/26, limiting upside from a purely supply-driven rally, even as meal and oil prices respond to regional demand and logistics.

🌦 Weather Outlook for Key Chinese Regions

Short- to medium-term climate guidance for April–June 2026 suggests mostly average rainfall across China, with pockets of above-normal precipitation in inland regions and a pattern of warmer conditions in the south and relatively cooler conditions in the north. For major soybean provinces in the Northeast and parts of the Huang-Huai region, this implies broadly favorable moisture conditions heading into and through the early stages of the growing season, with no clear widespread drought signal at present.

While localized excess rain or temperature swings remain possible, current forecasts do not yet indicate a weather shock large enough to materially tighten national soybean supply expectations. This underpins the relatively calm tone in Dalian soybean futures and helps explain why domestic physical prices are firm but not spiking. Weather will, however, remain a key watchpoint as planting and early vegetative stages progress.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Takeaways

• Exporters in China: With South Korea absorbing nearly 58% of soybean-related export volume, maintaining quality and non-GMO certification for Korean-grade yellow beans is crucial. Locking in forward sales where possible can help manage the concentration risk to a single dominant market.
• Asian food processors: Buyers in Korea, Japan and Vietnam should expect Chinese non-GMO bean offers to stay firm, supported by stable demand and tight identity-preserved supply. Short dips in Dalian futures may offer limited hedging opportunities, but structural premiums for food-grade beans are likely to persist.
• Import-reliant crushers in China: With global supplies comfortable and multiple origins competing, crushers can continue to diversify procurement between Brazil, Russia and others while using Dalian futures and options to manage margin volatility in meal and oil.

📉 3-Day Price Direction (Key Exchanges & Regions)

• Beijing FOB (CN physical beans): Prices for both conventional and organic yellow soybeans are expected to remain stable to slightly firm over the next three days, reflecting steady demand and no major supply shocks.
• Dalian Commodity Exchange (No.1 soybeans): After a small recent decline in the July 2026 contract, prices are likely to trade sideways with a mild upward bias, constrained by comfortable global stocks but supported by solid domestic meal demand.
• International reference (US and Black Sea FOB): US futures and Ukrainian FOB values are expected to remain range-bound near current levels, with currency and freight shifts more likely than fundamentals to drive short-term EUR-based price moves.

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