Cashew Kernels Ease Lower as Vietnam Harvest Pressure Builds

Cashew kernel prices in India, Vietnam and the Netherlands are edging lower, with benchmark WW320 grades down roughly 1–3% over the last week in USD terms, as improving raw nut availability and favorable weather encourage slightly softer offers.

The market tone is cautiously weak: processors in Vietnam are entering peak harvest under good weather, while India faces firm but not overheating demand and Europe sees adequate imports and re-exports. Global raw cashew output for 2025/26 is projected at a record high, led by West Africa, which limits upside in kernel prices even as consumption trends remain positive in key markets such as India, the EU and the US. Overall, near‑term risk is skewed to mild downside rather than any sharp rally.

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📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are indicative, converted from recent USD offers at ~1 USD = 0.93 EUR and rounded.

Region	Grade	Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1w change
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW240	FOB	≈7.15	▼ ~1%
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW320	FOB	≈6.32	▼ ~1%
India (New Delhi)	W240, conv.	FOB	≈6.85	▼ ~1%
India (New Delhi)	W320, conv.	FOB	≈6.37	▼ ~1%
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	WW320, conv.	FCA	≈4.56	▼ ~1%
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	WW320, organic	FCA	≈5.58	▼ ~1%

Premiums for organic kernels remain significant in both India and the Netherlands, broadly in the range of +20–30% over conventional equivalents, reflecting niche demand and higher certification and handling costs. Strong downstream demand in India keeps consumer-level kernel prices elevated, broadly aligning with a €6.9–7.4/kg band at retail for standard grades, which supports processor margins even as export offers soften modestly.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Global raw cashew output in 2025/26 is projected around 6.4 million tonnes, a historical high, with especially strong growth from West African origins such as Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau. This expanding raw nut base underpins ample supply for processors in Vietnam and India and caps the upside for kernel prices despite firm demand.

Vietnam remains the dominant kernel exporter, shipping over 723,800 tonnes in 2024, up 12.4% in volume and 19.2% in value year‑on‑year, and targeting around 800,000 tonnes and USD 5 billion in kernel export turnover by 2026. However, recent trade data show some short‑term volatility: Vietnamese semi‑processed kernel exports in February 2026 fell about 8.7% year‑on‑year, while imports of raw cashew nuts are rising again with the return of Cambodian supply, setting up a potentially supply‑heavy Q2.

India retains its role as a leading grower, processor and, crucially, the largest consumer market for kernels, with per‑capita consumption projected to keep growing and retail prices relatively resilient. Structural dependence on imported raw nuts from West and East Africa means Indian processors must pay competitive prices, limiting the scope for any deep kernel price correction. In Europe, the Netherlands acts as a key import and re‑export hub, sourcing roughly 98% of its kernels from developing countries and channeling product onward, especially to Germany and other EU markets, supporting steady baseline demand for Vietnamese and Indian kernels.

⛅ Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, VN)

In Vietnam, recent weather reports for mid‑April 2026 highlight significantly dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures across major cashew‑growing regions. These conditions are deemed highly favorable for the ongoing peak harvest, reducing disease pressure and facilitating efficient nut collection and drying, which should support good quality and throughput in coming weeks.

In India, the 2025/26 cashew crop is estimated around 725,000 tonnes of raw nuts, up from 615,000 tonnes in 2024/25, reflecting improved agronomic conditions and incremental area and yield gains. While short‑term local agromet bulletins point to only isolated convective activity in some western coastal and peninsular areas, there are currently no broad weather warnings likely to materially disrupt cashew harvest and processing in the key producing belt over the next days. Overall, weather is a mild bearish factor for prices, reinforcing expectations of solid near‑term supply.

📊 Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Ample raw nut availability: Record or near‑record raw cashew output globally and rising shipments from West Africa and Cambodia into Vietnam increase kernel production potential, easing raw nut procurement risk for processors.
• Resilient end‑user demand: Cashew consumption in India, Europe and the US continues to trend upward, supported by snack and confectionery use and health‑driven positioning, keeping overall offtake firm even as buyers negotiate modest price concessions.
• Margin dynamics: With raw nut prices stabilizing or easing in some origins, processors in Vietnam and India have room to trim FOB offers slightly while protecting margins, particularly in higher value grades and organic segments.
• Currency & logistics: Stable or slightly softer freight rates and relatively calm FX in key producer and buyer currencies reduce landed‑cost volatility, allowing buyers to time purchases more tactically around minor price dips rather than structural cost shocks.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next week, the balance of factors—strong raw nut inflows into Vietnam, favorable weather, and continued solid demand—points to a gently bearish to sideways bias in kernel prices across IN, VN and NL. Any deeper correction is likely to be checked by robust retail and food‑industry offtake, particularly in India and the EU.

🔍 Trading outlook (next 1–3 weeks)

• Buyers (roasters, importers, packers): Consider scaling into coverage on WW320/WW240 on minor dips rather than waiting for a sharp break; record raw supply limits upside, but strong demand curbs deep downside. Prioritize Vietnam FOB and Dutch FCA for volume grades; look to India for premium and organic kernels.
• Processors (India, Vietnam): Lock in raw nut supplies from Africa and Cambodia where possible to secure margins, but avoid aggressive forward‑selling at large discounts; fundamentals suggest only modest further downside from current kernel levels.
• Traders in Europe (NL): Maintain balanced stocks; use slight price softness in origin offers to rebuild nearby positions, focusing on fast‑moving WW320 and LWP grades while keeping organic lines tight due to their resilient premium.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction, in EUR)

• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): WW320 around €6.2–6.4/kg, bias: slightly softer as peak harvest and strong RCN arrivals meet steady export demand.
• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): W240/W320 conventional around €6.3–6.9/kg, bias: mostly stable to marginally softer on comfortable raw nut supply but firm domestic demand.
• Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA): WW320 conventional around €4.5–4.7/kg, organic around €5.5–5.7/kg, bias: sideways with adequate import flows and normal buying pace from EU snack and retail sectors.

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