Soybeans under pressure as record Brazil crop weighs on prices

Record‑high Brazilian soybean exports and crush in 2025/26 are reinforcing a structurally bearish tone in the global soybean complex, keeping international and Indian prices under pressure. Without a clear demand shock from China or a major weather issue in a key producer, any price recovery is likely to be shallow and short‑lived.

Brazil’s latest balance sheet points to a powerful combination of record production, record exports and record domestic processing, all at significantly lower average export prices. This is translating into softer benchmark values on CBOT and more competitive offers into India, Asia and Europe. Indian spot markets in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are feeling the weight of global oversupply, as farmers resist selling at current levels while processors and importers benefit from cheaper Brazilian and Black Sea origins. In this environment, buyers have a tactical window to extend forward coverage, while sellers face a market where rallies should be treated as opportunities to hedge rather than signs of a lasting trend change.

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📈 Prices & Spreads

Brazilian export prices for 2026 have been cut sharply, with the average soybean export price now estimated around USD 370/t versus a previous USD 440/t, a drop of roughly 16%. This aligns with the subdued tone in CBOT futures over recent sessions, where volume and open interest remain high but price responses to bullish inputs are muted.

Physical offers reflect this softness. Indicative FOB values converted to EUR (using ~0.93 EUR/USD) show U.S. No. 2 soybeans around 0.55–0.56 EUR/kg, Indian sortex‑clean beans near 0.90–0.91 EUR/kg, and Ukrainian origin close to 0.31 EUR/kg. Chinese FOB prices for yellow soybeans cluster around 0.67–0.75 EUR/kg, with a small premium for organic origin.

Origin	Specification	Location / Term	Latest price (EUR/kg)	1‑week change
US	No. 2	FOB Washington D.C.	≈0.55	Stable to slightly lower
India	Sortex clean	FOB New Delhi	≈0.90	Down marginally
Ukraine	Standard	FOB Odesa	≈0.31	Slightly lower
China	Yellow	FOB Beijing	≈0.63	Flat
China	Yellow organic	FOB Beijing	≈0.70	Flat

🌍 Supply & Demand

Brazil remains the epicentre of the current bearish impulse. Abiove now pegs 2025/26 soybean production at about 178–179 million tonnes, roughly 3.7% above the previous season and a clear new record. Export projections have been raised aggressively to 113.6 million tonnes, also an all‑time high, underscoring how much surplus Brazil is able to push into world markets.

At the same time, Abiove has sharply reduced its revenue outlook for the soybean complex to around USD 51.2 billion, down from more than USD 58 billion previously, due to the lower price deck. This illustrates how volume growth is outpacing value, with farmers and exporters capturing less income per tonne even as they move more product. The structural oversupply story is reinforced by consecutive record South American harvests and limited evidence that global demand is accelerating fast enough to absorb the extra tonnage.

On the demand side, China remains the key swing factor but is not currently providing a bullish counterweight. Recent official outlooks point to slightly lower soybean imports in 2026 versus the prior year, reflecting efforts to expand domestic oilseed output and sluggish downstream meat demand. At the same time, trade frictions and negative crush margins at times have constrained China’s spot buying appetite for U.S. origin, further tilting incremental demand toward competitively priced Brazilian cargoes.

📊 Regional Focus: India & Europe

For India, Brazilian benchmarks are central to price discovery. With Brazil offering abundant, discounted beans, Indian import parity remains low, capping domestic prices in key producing states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Spot mandi data from mid‑April show modal prices in major markets clustering around INR 5,100–5,700 per quintal, equivalent to roughly 0.56–0.63 EUR/kg, broadly consistent with the global downtrend highlighted by Abiove’s price cut.

Indian farmers who can afford to hold stocks are resisting sales at these levels, hoping for a rebound linked to weather scares or a policy‑driven demand uptick from China. Processors, however, benefit from improved crush margins as raw material costs ease while meal and oil demand inside India remains solid. This tension between farmer selling reluctance and processor buying interest is likely to keep internal basis dynamics volatile even as the global flat price stays under pressure.

For European buyers of soybean meal and oil, the current environment is broadly favourable. Brazil’s record exportable surplus, combined with competitive Black Sea and U.S. offers, is increasing origin choice and compressing basis levels into EU ports. Given the sizeable South American surplus already locked in, European importers can approach nearby and early‑new‑crop tenders with more confidence, using the current weakness to extend coverage on dips rather than chasing rallies.

🌦️ Weather & Risk Factors

Weather is not an immediate bullish driver but remains the key upside risk. Brazil’s 2025/26 crop has reached record territory despite localized issues with excessive rainfall in parts of the north and centre‑west, underlining how resilient overall output has been. As the focus shifts toward U.S. planting and early‑season development, any sustained dryness or excessive moisture in the Midwest could quickly reprice weather risk into CBOT futures, at least temporarily.

In the absence of such a weather shock, the market is likely to treat “normal” seasonal volatility as selling opportunities. A genuine trend reversal would probably require a combination of adverse weather in a major producer and firmer import demand from China or other large buyers.

📆 2–4 Week Outlook & Trading Ideas

Over the next two to four weeks, the global soybean market is expected to remain dominated by the Brazilian oversupply narrative. With record exports already baked into forward programmes and no clear sign of a rapid demand surge, price rallies are likely to be constrained by heavy farmer and commercial selling. Indian prices in central producing regions are therefore likely to stay subdued, broadly tracking international benchmarks and limiting farmer margins.

• Crushers & feed manufacturers (India/Asia): Use current weakness to extend coverage for Q2–Q3 needs, scaling in on dips rather than waiting for a perfect bottom.
• European importers: Consider locking in a higher share of Brazilian and Black Sea origin meal and oil for nearby shipments while basis remains competitive.
• Producers: Treat short‑term rallies driven by weather headlines or macro moves as opportunities to hedge a portion of expected production, given the heavy South American balance sheet.
• Speculative participants: Bias remains modestly bearish to range‑bound, with better risk‑reward in selling strength than in pre‑emptively buying a weather scare.

📉 Short‑Term Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• CBOT soybeans: Sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms, with rallies likely capped by record Brazilian export flows and cautious Chinese demand.
• FOB Brazil (beans): Stable to mildly weaker, as exporters compete for market share and adjust to lower average price expectations.
• India (central belt spot): Mostly steady with a mild downward bias in EUR‑equivalent terms, reflecting global pressure but also constrained farmer selling.

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