Lentils Market: Indian Moong Overhang Meets Soft but Stable Global Demand

Green gram prices in India are set to remain capped over the coming weeks as record government stocks and a larger summer crop weigh on any potential rally, while international lentil prices show a mildly softer but largely stable tone.

India’s green gram (moong) market has moved sideways over the past week, with only isolated firmness at Akola contrasting with otherwise steady to slightly soft trends across major wholesale hubs. Against this backdrop, FOB lentil offers from Canada and China have eased marginally in EUR terms in April, reflecting a comfortable global pulse balance and the recent inversion that has put red lentils at a premium to greens. European buyers benefit from this calm environment, with good opportunities to secure forward cover into early summer.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Domestic Indian moong prices were broadly unchanged week-on-week. Bold variety green gram in Indore held around the equivalent of EUR 79–80 per quintal, while Jaipur chamki traded near EUR 71 per quintal. Delhi saw a wider quality-driven range, roughly EUR 68–76 per quintal, and Akola chamki firmed by about EUR 1 per quintal to roughly EUR 83 per quintal, the main bullish outlier in an otherwise flat market.

On the export side, Canadian lentil FOB prices (Ottawa) have slipped modestly over April. Converted into EUR, recent offers are approximately:

Origin	Type	FOB price (EUR/kg)	Trend vs mid-April
Canada	Red Football	≈ 2.38	⬇ slight
Canada	Laird Green	≈ 1.61	⬇ slight
Canada	Eston Green	≈ 1.52	⬇ slight
China	Small Green (conv.)	≈ 1.07	➡ flat
China	Small Green (organic)	≈ 1.14	➡ flat

International commentary confirms that spot lentil prices have been broadly stable into late April, with a subtle premium emerging for Canadian red lentils over greens as exporters rebalance acreage and forward sales.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The dominant feature for green gram is India’s heavy structural supply overhang. Central government buffer stocks of moong are at their highest among all pulses, giving agencies ample room to release inventories if prices attempt a sustained rally. This policy backstop is widely seen by traders as an effective ceiling on domestic prices.

At the same time, summer-season moong sowing has increased year-on-year, supported by broadly favourable field conditions in key producing states. Arrivals at wholesale markets are steady, and a new wave of summer crop supply from Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat is expected to start flowing from late May, further reinforcing the comfortable supply picture. Government procurement at the Minimum Support Price of about EUR 84 per quintal continues but absorbs only a limited share of arrivals, as open-market prices remain materially below MSP.

On the demand side, dal mills are buying hand-to-mouth, with no visible speculative stock building. Seasonal factors also matter: intense heat across much of north and central India this month is dampening consumption of heavier protein-rich foods, adding to the soft demand tone. Weather agencies flag above-normal heatwave conditions for April–June across large parts of central and northwest India, pointing to a continued headwind for domestic pulse use if high temperatures persist.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Structurally, the combination of record public stocks, higher summer sowings and subdued internal demand tilts India’s green gram balance toward surplus. With procurement limited relative to total arrivals, most of the harvest is channeled through open markets where buyers hold strong bargaining power. This setup discourages any near-term price spike and supports a range-bound to slightly soft baseline.

Weather is a secondary but relevant factor. India’s meteorological outlook for April–June 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures and more frequent heatwave days in major pulse-growing belts, including parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra. While standing moong crops have so far benefited from generally favourable conditions, an extended heatwave could shorten grain filling in late-sown fields and trim yields at the margin, but for now this risk remains more medium-term than immediate.

Globally, Canadian and Chinese lentil supplies appear comfortable heading into the next Northern Hemisphere growing season. Market reports highlight ongoing sowing in Canada with no major weather disruptions yet and emphasize that the present inversion—red lentils priced slightly above greens—is driven more by trade flows and acreage intentions than by acute physical tightness.

📆 Price Outlook (3–4 Weeks)

Given the prevailing fundamentals, Indian green gram prices are expected to stay range-bound to marginally softer over the next three to four weeks. The upcoming summer crop arrivals from Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat from late May, combined with the central buffer stock overhang, will continue to exert downward pressure on spot values and cap any rally attempts.

For international trade, the underlying tone for lentils remains stable. FOB values for Canadian and Chinese origins may drift slightly with currency moves and freight costs but are unlikely to see sharp swings in the absence of a weather shock in Canada or a policy surprise in India. European and Asian buyers should thus anticipate a relatively calm pricing window into early June, especially for green lentil types.

💡 Trading & Procurement Strategy

• EU buyers of Indian moong: Use current stability to negotiate forward cover for May–June delivery, focusing on quality premiums rather than chasing price upside, as the market ceiling from government stocks remains firmly in place.
• Buyers of Canadian greens (Laird/Eston): Gradually extend coverage while the red-over-green inversion persists and FOB prices in EUR have eased slightly, but avoid over-committing ahead of clearer signals on Canadian 2026 acreage.
• Dal mills in India: Continue need-based buying; with arrivals set to rise and no sign of aggressive stock-building, the risk of a sudden price surge appears limited in the near term.
• Risk management: Monitor Indian weather bulletins closely for any shift from heatwave to localized storm or flood risk in pulse belts, and track Canadian planting progress for early signs of yield risk.

📉 Short-Term Regional Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• India (key moong mandis): Sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms; government stock overhang and soft seasonal demand dominate.
• Canada FOB (red & green lentils): Broadly stable with a mild downside bias in EUR if local currency weakens or freight softens further.
• China FOB (small green lentils): Flat; no immediate catalyst for price moves, with adequate domestic stocks and stable import interest.