Wheat Futures Stabilise as MATIF Curve Firms and CBOT Recovers Mildly

Wheat futures are stabilising with a slightly firmer forward curve in Paris and a modest rebound in Chicago, while physical FOB prices in France and the Black Sea edge lower, signalling comfortable nearby supply but rising risk premia further out.

After recent volatility, the global wheat market is consolidating. On Euronext, the nearby May 2026 contract is holding just below EUR 195/t, while deferred positions out to 2028/29 price in a gradual premium. CBOT futures in Chicago are posting small daily gains, but remain far below last season’s weather‑driven highs. In the cash market, FOB quotations from France and Ukraine have softened over April, reflecting strong competition and adequate export availability. Buyers retain good short‑term coverage, yet the upward slope of futures suggests the market is beginning to price weather and geopolitical risks for the 2026/27 and 2027/28 seasons.

📈 Prices & Term Structure

MATIF wheat is broadly steady, with a gently upward sloping curve:

• May 2026: EUR 194.50/t (last, unchanged)
• Sep 2026: EUR 209.00/t
• Dec 2026: EUR 217.50/t
• Mar 2027: EUR 222.50/t
• May 2027: EUR 225.75/t; Dec 2027: EUR 226.50/t
• Out to Mar 2029: around EUR 229–235/t

The curve shows a roughly EUR 30–40/t carry from May 2026 to late‑2028/early‑2029, indicating comfortable nearby supply and storage incentives but also a risk premium for future seasons. Open interest is concentrated in the 2026–2027 contracts, underlining these as the main hedging points.

CBOT wheat futures are firmer intraday, with modest gains across the 2026–2027 strip. Converted to EUR at current FX levels, benchmark July 2026 CBOT is trading in the low‑to‑mid EUR 20s per tonne equivalent at the futures level, remaining a strong price reference for US‑origin FOB offers.

🌍 Physical Market & Regional Differentials

Recent FOB and FCA indications confirm mild easing in physical prices through April:

• US, wheat 11.5% protein, FOB (CBOT‑linked): around EUR 0.19/kg (EUR 190/t), down from EUR 200/t mid‑month.
• France, wheat 11.0% protein, FOB Paris: around EUR 0.27/kg (EUR 270/t), down from EUR 280/t in early April.
• Ukraine, wheat 11.0–12.5% protein, FOB Odesa: roughly EUR 0.17–0.18/kg (EUR 170–180/t), slightly softer month‑on‑month.
• Ukraine FCA (Odesa/Kyiv): mostly stable around EUR 0.23–0.25/kg, indicating firm inland basis despite weaker FOB.

This pattern highlights continued competitive pressure from Black Sea origins and a narrowing but still positive premium for EU wheat versus Ukrainian supplies. Inland FCA stability in Ukraine points to logistics and risk premia absorbing some of the FOB adjustment.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

The flat day‑on‑day move on MATIF, combined with a still‑healthy contango, suggests the market perceives global wheat stocks as adequate into the 2026 harvest. The price spread between nearby and deferred contracts reflects storage costs, interest rates and uncertainty around future crops rather than immediate tightness.

In the physical market, the gradual decline in French and US FOB values since early April, alongside largely unchanged Ukrainian FCA indications, signals robust export competition and good short‑term availability. Black Sea origin remains the pricing floor for many importing regions, while quality and freight differentials support a persistent premium for EU and US origins.

🌦️ Weather & Risk Outlook

Weather in key Northern Hemisphere wheat regions over the coming days remains the main risk factor for the new crop. With prices already reflecting comfortable stocks, any shift towards drier or hotter patterns in major producers (EU, Black Sea, US Plains) could quickly tighten the forward curve further.

At the same time, ongoing geopolitical and logistical uncertainties around the Black Sea corridor continue to underpin a structural risk premium in forward MATIF and CBOT contracts, even if nearby physical prices remain under pressure from strong competition.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers (millers, feed manufacturers): Use current flat nearby MATIF values (around EUR 195/t) and softer FOB offers to extend coverage modestly into late‑2026, while keeping flexibility for weather‑driven dips.
• Producers: Consider incremental hedging on the more attractive deferred MATIF contracts above EUR 220/t, especially for 2027 output, to lock in the current carry without overcommitting.
• Traders: The pronounced contango still favours carry strategies where storage and financing are available; monitor basis moves in France and Ukraine for opportunities as export programs shift.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication (Direction)

Contract / Market	Current Level (EUR/t)	3‑Day Bias
MATIF Wheat May 2026	≈ 195	Slightly sideways to firm
MATIF Wheat Sep 2026	≈ 209	Slightly firm
CBOT Wheat Jul 2026 (EUR‑equiv.)	Low‑mid 20s (futures‑only)	Sideways with mild upside